Gross domestic product
The gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2025 increased in annual terms slightly less than in the previous period but more than in the first quarter of 2024.
Population
The population of Poland at the end of first quarter of 2025 was lower than a year before. Fewer children were born than in first quarter of the previous year, while more deaths were recorded. As a result, the natural decrease deepened. It is estimated that in first quarter of 2025, similar as in the previous year, the international net migration was positive
Labour market
The annual decrease in average paid employment in the enterprise sector was similar to the one recorded in April 2025 and slightly smaller than in the previous months of the year. In the register rolls of the unemployed, more persons were recorded than a year ago, more persons were removed from the register as well. The registered unemployment rate at the end of May 2025 was slightly lower than in the previous month and similar to the one observed a year ago.
Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions
Nominal and real gross retirement and other pensions in both systems increased year-on-year at a rate similar to that observed in the previous month.
Consumer prices
The year-on-year increase in prices of consumer goods and services was the lowest since the mid-2024. Prices related to health and recreation and culture, among others, increased less than in April 2025, while, among others, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, rose more. The growth in prices related to dwelling was similar to that recorded in the previous month. The decline in transport prices (including fuels for personal transport equipment) deepened.
PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES
Prices of sold production1 of industry
and construction and assembly production
The annual decrease in prices of sold production of industry slightly slowed down, as did the growth in construction and assembly production prices.
PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY
Sold production of industry2
Sold production of industry increased in annual terms to a greater extent than in the previous month. Growth in production sales was recorded in most sections of industry, except for mining and quarrying (where the decline continued). In manufacturing, the main section, sales increased slightly more than in industry as a whole. Also in most of the main industrial groupings, sold production was higher than in May 2024. Only in energy production it still remained markedly below the level recorded a year before.
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
Construction and assembly production3
The year-on-year decline in construction and assembly production, observed since February, maintained, although for seasonally unadjusted production it was smaller than in the previous month. Production decreased in entities specialising in construction of buildings and civil engineering, while it increased at companies engaged mainly in specialised construction activities. Sales of investment works were higher than in May 2024, while sales of restoration works were lower.
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
Housing construction4
Less dwellings were completed than a year before. A decrease was still observed in the number of dwellings for which permits have been granted5, as well as in those where construction has begun.
DWELLINGS COMPLETED
DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 5
DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN
Retail sales
The year-on-year increase in retail sales was smaller than in the previous month. In most groups, sales were higher than a year earlier, notably in the groups of furniture, radio, TV and household appliances and motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts. For the second consecutive month, sales also increased in the groups with the largest share of total retail sales, namely food, beverages and tobacco products as well as solid, liquid and gaseous fuels. Sales also grew in the textiles, clothing, footwear group (following a significant drop a year earlier). The decline in sales in the group of others, which began in early 2025, continued.
RETAIL SALES
Agriculture
Procurement prices for most agricultural products were higher than a year ago. However, prices for potatoes and live pigs were lower than in May last year.
PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT
PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER
Foreign trade
Exports of goods dropped to a lesser extent than in the same period of the previous year, while imports increased (following a decline a year earlier). Total exchange closed with a negative balance, while a year before it was positive. Turnover with most country groups declined, with the only increase observed in imports from developing countries. The terms of trade index in the first quarter of 2025, as in the previous year, developed unfavourably.
EXPORTS
(in PLN)
Financial results of non-financial enterprises
Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were higher than those obtained in the first quarter of 2024. Economic and financial relations improved. Revenues from export sales decreased. The basic indicators among exporters were more favourable than a year before, but slightly worse than those for enterprises in total.
NET FINANCIAL RESULT
GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR
NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR
Business tendency
General business climate in manufacturing is assessed slightly more unfavourably than in May 2025. Business sentiments in construction and transportation and storage are similarly pessimistic as a month before. In retail trade, business climate assessments deteriorated to slightly negative (compared to a bit positive in the previous month).
Among the barriers hindering current activity, entrepreneurs most often point to the cost of employment, followed by, among others, the uncertainty of the economic environment and high payments to state revenue. The barrier unclear and unstable legal regulations is indicated less frequently than in June 2024, and additionally in manufacturing and construction, the nuisance of high payments to state revenue also decreased significantly. At the same time, entrepreneurs in most surveyed areas report problems related to tough competition on the market more often than a year before.
Most entrepreneurs still plan to maintain employment at the current level. Simultaneously, in presented areas of the economy, more entities intend to reduce the employment of workers who are relatively easy to replace than to increase it. Regarding workers who are relatively difficult to replace, entrepreneurs in manufacturing and transportation and storage are more likely to declare intentions to increase employment rather than reduce it (however, in retail and construction the trend is reversed), with the lower percentage of companies planning to increase employment than in March 2025. According to entrepreneurs, the main factors influencing the salary level in their firms remain the financial situation and maintaining the real value of wages (inflationary increases), although the importance of the latter factor is mostly lower than in March 2025.
Consumer tendency
Consumer confidence indicators, reflecting current and predicted tendencies in individual consumption, are less pessimistic than in previous months – current indicator is the best from March 2020, and leading – from the beginning of the 2024. Compared to May 2025, among others, pessimistic forecasts about the country's economic situation and assessments regarding the possibility of making important purchases have improved. According to respondents, the growth in consumer prices is expected to continue.
Consumer concerns about the threat posed by the current situation in Ukraine are either smaller or similar to those expressed a month before. According to 29% of respondents (similar to May 2025), the conflict on Ukrainian territory poses a major threat to Poland's sovereignty and independence, while 24% consider it as a significant threat to the Polish economy (vs. 26%). According to 7% of respondents (vs. 8% in May 2025) the war in Ukraine is a major threat to their personal financial situation. Only 1% (vs. 2% a month before) definitely fear losing their job or having to close their own business because of the war, while 8% still see the possibility of such a situation.
CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR
Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Opracowań Statystycznych
e-mail:
ssgk@stat.gov.pl