Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju

Sytuacja
społeczno-gospodarcza
kraju

Released: 25/08/2026

Basic data

Gross domestic product

2nd quarter 2026

The year-on-year growth in gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2026 was higher than that recorded in the previous quarter and a year earlier.

FLASH ESTIMATE:
+3.8% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
+0.9% q/q
+3.7% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Population

1st half of 2026

Poland’s population at the end of the half of 2026 was lower than at the end of both June and December of 2025. In the period of January-June 2026, fewer births were registered than in the previous year, whereas the number of deaths increased. As a result of deaths outnumbering births, the natural increase remained negative. It is estimated that in the first half of 2026, as in the previous year, net international migration was positive.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
37.2 million people
(-159 thousand y/y)
POPULATION
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
115.0 thousand
(-1 thousand y/y)
LIVE BIRTHS
210.5 thousand
(+2 thousand y/y)
TOTAL DEATHS

Labour market

July 2026

The year-on-year decrease in average paid employment in the enterprise sector was slightly lower than in previous months. In the register rolls of the unemployed, fewer persons were recorded than a year ago, whereas the number of persons removed from the registers was significantly higher. The registered unemployment rate at the end of July 2026 remained at the level from the previous month and was higher than in July 2025.

+0.1% m/m
-0.8% y/y
AVERAGE PAID EMPLOYMENT
IN ENTERPRISE SECTOR1 (IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS)
5.8%
REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
1 In entities with more than 9 employed persons.

Labour market – Labour Force Survey (LFS)

2nd quarter 2026

According to the preliminary results of the Labour Force Survey, in the second quarter of 2026 the number of employed persons and the employment rate were slightly higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year. The number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate also increased compared with those recorded a year earlier.

3.2%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY LFS

Labour market – Labour demand

1st quarter 2026

According to the results of the Labour Demand Survey, in the first quarter of 2026 fewer new jobs were created than a year earlier. Lower was also the number of jobs liquidated.

+16.7% q/q
-0.8% y/y
JOB VACANCIES
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Average monthly gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector

July 2026

The annual growth in average nominal gross wages and salaries in the enterprise was the highest one recorded since the beginning of 2026. The purchasing power of wages and salaries also increased more than in the previous months, despite the acceleration of consumer prices dynamics.

+1.1% m/m
+6.8% y/y

NOMINAL

+0.2% m/m
+3.6% y/y
REAL

Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions

July 2026

Average nominal gross retirement and other pensions from the non-agricultural social security system increased year-on-year to a slightly lesser extent than in the previous months. The growth rate of purchasing power of these benefits also decreased. The decline of nominal and real benefits of farmers deepened.

FROM NON-AGRICULTURAL
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM:
+0.1% m/m
+6.2% y/y
NOMINAL
-0.4% m/m
+3.3% y/y
REAL
OF FARMERS:
+0.5% m/m
-0.4% y/y
NOMINAL
0.0% m/m
-3.1% y/y
REAL

Consumer prices2

July 2026

The dynamics of prices of consumer goods and services accelerated. It was influenced, among others, by a significant growth in prices related to transport (particularly strong for fuel prices), which resulted from the expiry of the LFP3 package. The year-on-year growth in prices related to dwelling was slightly lower than in June 2026. In the second consecutive month the annual decrease in food and non-alcoholic beverages prices was recorded.

+0.8% m/m
+3.0% y/y

PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES

2 According to COICOP 2018 classification.
3The “Lower Fuel Prices” package (CPN – “Ceny Paliw Niżej”) was introduced to reduce fuel prices in response to changes in crude oil prices caused by the situation in the Middle East. Maximum fuel prices were introduced (and applied until the end of June 2026), also VAT and excise duty rates were reduced.

Prices4 of sold production of industry
and construction and assembly production

July 2026

The increase in prices of sold production of industry in annual terms was higher than in the previous months. In construction and assembly production, the growth rate also accelerated and was the highest in over two years.

+0.6m/m
+2.8% y/y

PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY

+1.1% m/m
+6.2% y/y
PRICES OF CONSTRUCTION
AND ASSEMBLY PRODUCTION
4 Preliminary data.

Sold production of industry5

July 2026

The year-on-year growth rate of sold production of industry was lower than in the previous month. Production increased in all sections of industry, and the highest growth was in mining and quarrying. In manufacturing, the growth rate was slightly lower than that recorded for industry as a whole. Among the main industrial groupings, sales increased in the production of capital goods, intermediate goods and non-durable consumer goods. On the other hand, in the production of energy-related goods and durable consumer goods, sales were below the level recorded a year before.

-1.8% m/m
+5.1% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

+0.5% m/m
+4.2% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
5 Preliminary data.

Construction and assembly production6

July 2026

Construction and assembly production, after four months of growth, decreased in annual terms (due to, among other factors, price changes and irregular settlements after completion of work). Production was lower than in July 2025 across all divisions of construction. The deepest decline was recorded among the entities dealing mainly with specialised construction activities. The decline continued in sales of restoration works, while sales of investment works were still at a higher level than a year earlier.

-7.6% m/m
-2.4% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

-3.8% m/m
-2.2% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
6 Preliminary data.

Housing construction7

July 2026

More dwellings were completed than a year earlier. There was a rise in the number of dwellings for which permits have been granted8. The number of dwellings in which construction has begun increased as well.

-2.8% m/m
+3.5% y/y

DWELLINGS COMPLETED

-7.1% m/m
+1.2% y/y

DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 8

-1.7% m/m
+2.7% y/y

DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN

7 Preliminary data.
8 Or which have been registered with a construction project.

Retail sales

July 2026

The year-on-year increase in retail sales were lower than in the previous month. In most groups, sales were higher than a year ago, including furniture, radio, TV and household appliances, motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts as well as food, beverages and tobacco products. A slight drop in sales, the first in over a year, was recorded in the group of the solid, liquid and gaseous fuels.

+2.2% m/m
+3.9% y/y

seasonally unadjusted

-0.3% m/m
+4.3 y/y

seasonally adjusted

Transport9

July 2026

In July 2026, as in the previous months, the volume of goods transported by road and railway was higher than a year earlier. Growth in passenger transport also continued, though the pace slowed.

(.)
(.)

OF GOODS10

-11.4% m/m
+3.5% y/y
OF PASSENGERS
9 Preliminary data.
10 The lack of information on total transport of goods and maritime transport for July 2026 and the period January-July 2026 results, among others, from organisational changes in the maritime transport sector and the transfer of transport operations to entities not covered by the current statistical survey.

Agriculture11

(procurement prices)
July 2026

Prices of most basic agricultural products in procurement were lower than in July 2025. However, procurement prices of potatoes and of poultry for slaughter increased.

-0.3% m/m
-3.6% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT

-2.3% m/m
-25.3% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER

11 Preliminary data.

Foreign trade12

(at current prices)
1st half of 2026

The value of foreign trade in goods (in PLN) was higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year. The exchange closed with a negative balance, which was larger than a year earlier. The turnover of goods increased with most groups of countries; only imports from Central and Eastern European countries fell significantly. The terms of  trade index in January–May 2026 was at an unfavourable level, similar to that recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year.

+4.6% y/y

EXPORTS
(in PLN)

+5.1% y/y
IMPORTS
(in PLN)
12 Preliminary data.

Financial results of non-financial enterprises

1st half 2026

Surveyed enterprises recorded better financial results than in the first half of 2025, and their economic and financial ratios also improved. Revenues from export sales increased. The basic indicators for exporters were more favourable than a year earlier and better than those recorded for all surveyed enterprises.

+30.6% y/y

NET FINANCIAL RESULT

5.8%

GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

4.8%

NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

" " "

Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises

1st half 2026

Investment outlays of the surveyed non-financial enterprises grew, after a decline a year before. Expenditure on buildings and structures, as well as on purchases, increased. Entities with foreign capital showed greater investment activity than a year earlier. The number and estimated value of new investments were lower than in the first half of 2025.

+13.7% y/y

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)

Business tendency

August 2026

Sentiments in most presented activities are similar as in the previous month. Entities in manufacturing negatively assess business tendency (that is the only one among the presented activities, where the pessimistic opinions maintained). In the construction, assessments are still close to neutral and in retail trade they are positive. Sentiments have slightly improved in transportation and storage and they are positive, following negative opinions a month earlier.

For entrepreneurs in manufacturing, most barriers to conducting current activity became less burdensome than a  month ago (this relates mainly to unclear, inconsistent and unstable legal regulations). In retail trade, the significance of high payments to the state revenue and the uncertainty of the economic environment decreased. The intensity of other constraints, in general, is similar to that recorded in the previous month. In construction, entrepreneurs less often than in July 2026 indicate a shortage of skilled labour and unclear, inconsistent and unstable legal regulations. On the other hand, they report high payments to the state revenue as more burdensome. In transportation and storage, the burdensome of too tough competition of domestic and foreign firms declined the most, whereas more noticeable are, among others, insufficient demand and high payments to the state revenue.

Similarly to the previous round of the survey of investment activity in enterprises, conducted in May 2026, most entities declare, that in the current year the level of investment from 2025 will be maintained (this option was indicated by 46–63% of enterprises in presented activities). High investment costs, the uncertain macroeconomic situation and unclear, inconsistent and unstable legal regulations are mentioned as factors limiting investment, in general.

GENERAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR:
-5.1
MANUFACTURING
-0.1
CONSTRUCTION
+0.9
RETAIL TRADE
+1.1
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

Consumer tendency

August 2026

Consumers’ sentiments are weaker than a month before. Both the current consumer confidence indicator (which tracks current tendencies in individual consumption), as well as leading indicator (reflecting predicted tendencies) declined. The assessments on current possibility of making major purchases and on future saving money, worsened the most. However, less unfavourable are predictions concerning, among others, future level of unemployment. Among respondents, prevail opinions that in coming months the consumer prices will grew at the similar rate as before.

In general, consumers report more or slightly more than a month earlier concerns regarding the current situation in Ukraine. The percentage of respondents who consider the conflict in Ukraine as posing a serious threat to Poland’s sovereignty and independence clearly grew (from 23% a month before, to 28%). Slightly higher than in July 2026 is the percentage of surveyed consumers who believe that the situation on the Ukrainian territory poses a significant threat to the Polish economy (23% vs. 22%). The percentage of individuals who definitely fear losing their job or having to close down their business due to the situation in Ukraine also slightly increased (from 2% to 3%), while fewer respondents than in July 2026 indicate that such a situation is possible to occur (6% vs. 9%). Similarly to a month earlier, 8% of respondents consider that the conflict may pose a significant threat to their personal financial situation.

-11.3

CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

-7.6
LEADING CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Aleja Niepodległości 208
00-925 Warszawa

Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Analiz i Udostępniania Informacji
e-mail: ssgk@stat.gov.pl