Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju

Sytuacja
społeczno-gospodarcza
kraju

Released: 24/06/2026

Basic data

Gross domestic product

1st quarter 2026

The growth in gross domestic product in annual terms (seasonally unadjusted) in the first quarter of 2026 was lower than in the previous quarter, but slightly higher than in the first quarter of 2025. After adjusting for seasonal factors, the growth rate was weaker than in the previous period and a year before.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
+3.5% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
+0.6% q/q
+3.5% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Population

1st quarter 2026

Poland’s population at the end of the first quarter of 2026 was lower than a year ago and at the end of last year. In the period from January to March 2026, the number of live births was similar to that in the previous year, whereas the number of deaths decreased slightly. As a result of the continued excess of deaths over births, natural increase remained negative. It is estimated that in the first quarter of 2026, similarly to the corresponding period of the previous year, net international migration was positive.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
37.3 million people
(-155 thousand y/y)
Population
57.5 thousand
(0 thousand y/y)
LIVE BIRTHS
112.0 thousand
(-1 thousand y/y)
TOTAL DEATHS

Labour market

May 2026

The annual decrease in average paid employment in the enterprise sector was similar to that observed in previous months. Compared with a year earlier, there were fewer newly unemployed persons and fewer removals from the unemployment register. The registered unemployment rate at the end of May 2026 was slightly lower than in previous month but higher than a year ago.

-0.1 m/m
-0.9% y/y
AVERAGE PAID EMPLOYMENT
IN ENTERPRISE SECTOR1 (IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS)
5.9%
REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
1 In entities with more than 9 employed persons.

Labour market – Labour Force Survey (LFS)

1st quarter 2026

According to the preliminary results of the Labour Force Survey, in the first quarter of 2026, the number of employed persons as well as the employment rate were higher than a year before. The number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate decreased.

3.3%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE by LFS

Labour market – Labour demand

1st quarter 2026

According to the results of the Labour Demand Survey, in the first quarter of 2026 fewer new jobs were created than a year earlier. Lower was also the number of jobs liquidated.

+16.7% q/q
-0.8% y/y
JOB VACANCIES
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Average monthly gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector

May 2026

Average gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector, both in nominal and real terms, increased slightly more year-on-year than in April 2026, but less than in earlier months.

-3.8% m/m
+5.8% y/y

NOMINAL

-3.5% m/m
+2.5% y/y
REAL

Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions

May 2026

The year-on-year increase in nominal retirement and other pensions from the non-agricultural social security system was slightly lower than in previous months, but still significant. The pace of growth in the purchasing power of these benefits, with a slight slowdown in inflation, was similar to that in the previous month. The slight increase in nominal retirement and other pensions of farmers continued, while their purchasing power declined again year-on-year.

FROM NON-AGRICULTURAL
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM:
-0.3% m/m
+7.0% y/y
NOMINAL
-0.1% m/m
+3.9% y/y
REAL
OF FARMERS:
-0.8% m/m
+1.0% y/y
NOMINAL
-0.6% m/m
-1.9% y/y
REAL

Consumer prices2

May 2026

The year-on-year increase in prices of consumer goods and services in total was slightly lower than in April 2026. Among others, the rate of increase in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages slowed down. In contrast, prices related to, among others, dwelling and transport grew at a faster rate than in previous months. The rate of increase in fuel prices for private vehicles accelerated significantly, driven by the situation in the Middle East. Prices of clothing and footwear remained lower than a year earlier.

-0.3% m/m
+3.1% y/y

PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES

2 According to COICOP 2018 classification.

Prices3 of sold production of industry
and construction and assembly production

May 2026

For the third consecutive month, producer prices in industry exceeded the level recorded a year earlier. The increase was higher than in March and April 2026. The rate of increase in producer prices in construction was similar to that recorded in the previous month.

0.0 m/m
+2.4% y/y

PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY

+0.2% m/m
+5.5% y/y
PRICES OF CONSTRUCTION
AND ASSEMBLY PRODUCTION
3 Preliminary data.

Sold production of industry4

May 2026

The year-on-year increase in sold production of industry was higher than in April 2026. Production was higher than a year earlier in all sections of industry and it increased the most in mining and quarrying. In manufacturing, the increase in production was smaller than in industry in total. In most of the main industrial groupings, production exceeded the level recorded a year ago, with the highest growth observed in the production of intermediate goods. Only in the production of durable consumer goods were sales lower than in May 2025.

-0.8% m/m
+4.1% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

+1.4% m/m
+4.4% y/y
seasonally adjusted
4 Preliminary data.

Construction and assembly production5

May 2026

Construction and assembly production increased year-on-year at a slower rate than in the previous month. This was influenced, among others, by seasonal factors (once these were eliminated, the growth strengthened). Production was higher than in May 2025 in enterprises engaged mainly in specialised construction activities and in those specialising in construction of buildings, while it was lower in enterprises engaged mainly in civil engineering. Sales of investment works increased, while the decline in restoration works continued.

+7.9% m/m
+3.9% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

+0.8% m/m
+4.8% y/y
seasonally adjusted
5 Preliminary data.

Housing construction6

May 2026

Fewer dwellings were completed than a year earlier. There was a rise in the number of dwellings for which permits have been granted7, as well as in the number of dwellings in which construction has begun.

-0.6% m/m
+3.7% y/y

DWELLINGS COMPLETED

-13.8% m/m
+13.0% y/y

DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 7

-18.2% m/m
+6.9% y/y

DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN

6 Preliminary data.
7 Or which have been registered with a construction project.

Retail sales

May 2026

Retail sales increased more year-on-year than a month earlier. In most groups, sales were higher than a year ago, including among others, in solid, liquid and gaseous fuels, in furniture, radio, TV and household appliances, as well as in textiles, clothing, footwear. As in April 2026, a decline was recorded in the largest group, i.e. in food, beverages and tobacco products.

-1.7% m/m
+3.0% y/y

seasonally unadjusted

+0.4% m/m
+3.7% y/y

seasonally adjusted

Transport8

May 2026

Transport of goods by road and rail was still higher than a year before. Passenger transport also continued to grow, but the growth rate was weaker than in previous months.

(.)
(.)

OF GOODS9

-2.9% m/m
+1.8% y/y
OF PASSENGERS
8 Preliminary data.
9 The lack of information on total transport of goods and maritime transport for May 2026 and the period January-May 2026 results, among others, from organisational changes in the maritime transport sector and the transfer of transport operations to entities not covered by the current statistical survey.

Agriculture10

(procurement prices)
May 2026

On the agricultural market, procurement prices for basic plant products were below the level recorded a year ago. Prices for most basic animal products also decreased, including most notably the prices of pigs for slaughter.

+2.1% m/m
-12.3% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT

-6.7% m/m
-23.5% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER

10 Preliminary data.

Foreign trade11

(at current prices)
January ̶ April 2026

The value of foreign trade in goods (in PLN) was higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year. Total exchange resulted in a negative balance, smaller than in the previous year. Trade in goods increased with most groups of countries; only imports from Central and Eastern European countries declined significantly. The terms of trade in the first quarter of 2026 were less unfavourable than a year earlier.

+3.3% y/y

EXPORTS
(in PLN)

+2.9% y/y
IMPORTS
(in PLN)
11 Preliminary data.

Financial results of non-financial enterprises

1st quarter 2026

Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were higher than those obtained in the first quarter of 2025, and economic and financial relations also improved. Revenues from export sales increased. The basic indicators for exporters were better than a year before and better than for enterprises in total.

+20.5% y/y

NET FINANCIAL RESULT

4.9%

GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

3.8%

NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

" " "

Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises

1st quarter 2026

Surveyed non-financial enterprises incurred higher investment outlays than in the previous year. Outlays on buildings and structures as well as on purchases increased.

+8.7% y/y

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)

Business tendency

June 2026

Business sentiment in manufacturing and retail trade deteriorated compared with May 2026 and remains unfavourable. In construction, as well as in transportation and storage, the business climate assessments are as pessimistic as they were in the previous month.

Among barriers to conducting current business activity in manufacturing and in transportation and storage, unclear, inconsistent and unstable legal regulations are considered more burdensome than in May 2026. In construction, entrepreneurs more often report a shortage of skilled labour, while in retail trade more frequently is indicated an insufficient demand.

As in the previous round of the labour market survey, conducted three months earlier, entrepreneurs in the presented areas of the economy generally plan to maintain employment at its current level. In manufacturing, construction, and transportation and storage, entrepreneurs are more inclined to increase than decline the employment of workers who are relatively difficult to replace. A different approach is observed in retail trade. In the case of workers who are relatively easy to replace, among employers still prevail plans to reduce employment.

According to entrepreneurs, the level of employees’ wages is significantly influenced mainly by the company’s financial situation and the need to maintain the real value of wages, (i.e. inflationary increases).

GENERAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR:
-6.0
MANUFACTURING
-0.7
CONSTRUCTION
-1.6
RETAIL TRADE
-0.6
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

Consumer tendency

June 2026

Consumer confidence indicators, which reflect current and expected trends in individual consumption, have improved compared to May 2026. Assessments of the country’s current and expected economic situation are among those that have become less pessimistic. However, expectations regarding saving money have worsened. Most respondents predict that in the coming months the increase in consumer prices will be similar to that observed previously.

Consumer concerns regarding the  current situation in Ukraine are similar to those reported a month earlier. Nearly one in four respondents (23% compared to 24% in May 2026) views the current situation as a serious threat to Poland’s sovereignty and independence. Still 22% of respondents view the conflict in Ukraine as a significant threat to the Polish economy. Slightly more respondents than in May 2026 (6% compared to 5%) perceive the conflict as having a significant impact on their personal financial situation. Similarly as a month earlier, 2% of respondents are definitely concerned about losing their jobs or having to close down their businesses due to the situation in Ukraine, while another 7% consider such a scenario as possible (compared to 8% in May 2026).

-9.9

CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

-7.7
LEADING CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Aleja Niepodległości 208
00-925 Warszawa

Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Analiz i Udostępniania Informacji
e-mail: ssgk@stat.gov.pl