Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju

Sytuacja
społeczno-gospodarcza
kraju

Released: 23/07/2025

Basic data

Gross domestic product

1st quarter 2025

The gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2025 increased in annual terms slightly less than in the previous period but more than in the first quarter of 2024.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
+3.2% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
+3.7% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Population

1st half of 2025

The population of Poland at the end of June 2025 was smaller both than a year earlier and compared to the end of December of the previous year. In January‒June 2025, fewer children were born and more people died than in the same period a year before. As the number of births was lower than the number of deaths, the natural increase remained negative. It is estimated that in the first half of 2025, as in the same period of the previous year, the international net migration was positive.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
37.4 million people
(-162 thousand y/y)
Population
115.5 thousand
(-10 thousand y/y)
LIVE BIRTHS
209.0 thousand
(+6 thousand y/y)
TOTAL DEATHS

Labour market

1st half of 2025

The annual decrease of average paid employment in the enterprise sector was slightly larger than in the first half of 2024. Both the inflow to and the outflow from the register rolls of the unemployed were lower than a year ago. The registered unemployment rate at the end of June 2025 was higher than in the previous month and a year before.

-0.8% y/y
AVERAGE PAID EMPLOYMENT
IN ENTERPRISE SECTOR
(IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS)
5.2%
REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Labour market – Labour demand

1st quarter 2025

According to the results of the labour demand survey, in the first quarter of 2025 fewer new jobs were created than a year before, whereas more jobs were liquidated.

-9.8% y/y
JOB VACANCIES

Average monthly gross wages and salaries in enterprise sector

1st half of 2025

Average monthly nominal gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector increased in annual terms to a lesser extent than in the first half of 2024. With the strengthening inflation, the growth in the purchasing power of wages and salaries also slowed down.

+8.7% y/y

NOMINAL

+4.2% y/y
REAL

Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions

1st half of 2025

The annual growth rate of average monthly nominal and real gross retirement and other pensions in both systems has slowed down, with the deceleration more noticeable in the case of real benefits, partly due to inflation.

FROM NON-AGRICULTURAL
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM:
+9.1% y/y
NOMINAL
+3.6% y/y
REAL
OF FARMERS:
+7.4% y/y
NOMINAL
+2.0% y/y
REAL

Consumer prices

1st half of 2025

Prices of consumer goods and services grew in annual terms more than in the first half of 2024. In June 2025, the growth rate of prices accelerated slightly, unlike in the two previous months (with the greatest increase in prices related to dwelling). The price dynamics of food and non-alcoholic beverages was the weakest since the beginning of the year. Prices related to transport fell to a smaller extent than in May 2025.

+4.5% y/y

PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES

Prices of sold production1 of industry
and construction and assembly production

1st half of 2025

The year-on-year decrease of producer prices in industry was smaller than in the first half of 2024. The growth rate of producer prices in construction was slower than a year before.

-1.4% y/y

PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY

+3.4% y/y
PRICES OF CONSTRUCTION
AND ASSEMBLY PRODUCTION
1 Preliminary data.

Sold production of industry2

1st half of 2025

Sold production of industry increased in annual terms to a greater extent than in the first half of 2024. Production grew in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities as well as in manufacturing (the main section of industry). In contrast, sold production was lower than a year before in mining and quarrying (where a downward trend has been observed for several months) as well as in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. Sales increased in most of the main industrial groupings, with the largest growth observed in the production of capital goods. The only exception was the production of energy, where sales were significantly lower than a year earlier.

+1.4% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

2 Preliminary data.

Construction and assembly production3

1st half of 2025

The year-on-year decline in construction and assembly production was smaller than in the first half of 2024 (with a slight increase recorded in the first quarter of 2025). Production was lower than a year before in enterprises specialising in construction of buildings and in civil engineering, while it was higher in entities engaged mainly in specialised construction activities. Sales of restoration works decreased, while sales of investment works increased.

-0.7% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

3 Preliminary data.

Housing construction4

1st half of 2025

Fewer dwellings were completed than a year ago, but the decline was milder than a year earlier. After large increases in the first half of 2024, the number of dwellings for which permits have been granted5 and the number of dwellings in which construction has begun decreased significantly in annual terms.

-4.5% y/y

DWELLINGS COMPLETED

-15.8% y/y

DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 5

-9.5% y/y

DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN

4 Preliminary data.
5 Or which have been registered with a construction project.

Retail sales

1st half of 2025

Retail sales increased, but to a lesser extent than in the first half of 2024. In most groups, sales were higher than a year earlier, except for the group others (where the downward trend has continued since the beginning of the year). The highest growth in sales was recorded in the group of furniture, radio, TV and household appliances, as well as in units trading in motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts. Sales also increased, among others, in the groups: textiles, clothing, footwear as well as solid, liquid and gaseous fuels. In the group with the largest share in total retail sales, i.e. food, beverages and tobacco products, sales slightly exceeded the previous year’s level.

+3.7% y/y

RETAIL SALES

Transport

1st half of 2025

The decline in transport of goods was deeper than in the first half of 2024. However, passenger transport grew at a pace similar to that recorded in the first half of the previous year.

-7.8% y/y

OF GOODS

+6.9% y/y
OF PASSENGERS

Agriculture

(procurement prices)
1st half of 2025

Procurement prices for most basic cereals and animal products were higher than a year ago (when declines prevailed). However, prices of pigs for slaughter and of potatoes were lower than in the first half of 2024.

+12.5% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT

-12.8% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER

Foreign trade

(at current prices)
January‒May 2025

Exports of goods declined to a much lesser extent than in the same period of the previous year, while imports increased (after a decrease a year before). The exchange closed with a negative balance, while a year earlier there was a positive one. The value of exports to all groups of countries was lower than a year before, while imports decreased only in trade with Central and Eastern European countries. The terms of trade index in January‒April 2025 was more unfavourable than a year ago.

-0.9% y/y

EXPORTS
(in PLN)

+4.0% y/y
IMPORTS
(in PLN)

Financial results of non-financial enterprises

1st quarter 2025

Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were higher than those obtained in the first quarter of 2024. Economic and financial relations improved. Revenues from export sales decreased. The basic indicators among exporters were more favourable than a year before, but slightly worse than those for enterprises in total.

+19.3% y/y

NET FINANCIAL RESULT

4.3%

GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

3.4%

NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

" " "

Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises

1st quarter 2025

The surveyed enterprises incurred less investment outlays than in the first quarter of 2024. Outlays on buildings and structures decreased more than those on purchases.

-3.6% y/y

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)

Business tendency

July 2025

Enterprises in manufacturing assess the general business climate as unfavourably as in June 2025. Sentiments among entrepreneurs in construction are less pessimistic, while in transportation and storage they have turned positive (following two months of negative assessments). In retail trade the assessments are more unfavourable than in June 2025.

Entrepreneurs currently identify labour costs, uncertainty in the economic environment, and high payments to the state budget as the most burdensome barriers hindering their ongoing activity. However, these barriers are generally reported less frequently than in July 2024. At the same time, entrepreneurs across most presented activities report problems related to too tough market competition more often.

According to the entrepreneurs from most presented sectors, the growth rate in prices of services, goods, materials and raw materials used in business activity will slow down. Simultaneously, more firms predict stabilisation of prices, while fewer enterprises expect an acceleration in the growth rate of prices. Among the factors driving up the cost of doing business, companies most often indicate energy and fuel prices, followed by labour costs, which are generally mentioned less often than in April 2025, especially in manufacturing.

In opinions about the war in Ukraine, the majority of companies (87–94%) state that they do not experience negative effects form the conflict, or assess such effects as minor for the conducted activity.

GENERAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR:
-7.7
MANUFACTURING
-3.3
CONSTRUCTION
-3.6
RETAIL TRADE
+1.1
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

Consumer tendency

July 2025

Consumer confidence indicators, monitoring current and predicted tendencies in individual consumption, are more unfavourable than in the previous month. Among others, negative forecasts related to the possibility of making important purchases, as well as to the current and predicted economic situation of the country, have worsened.

Consumer concerns about the threat posed by the current situation in Ukraine are either slightly smaller or similar to those expressed a month ago. According to 28% of respondents, the war on Ukrainian territory poses a major threat to Poland's sovereignty and independence, while 23% consider it a significant threat to the Polish economy (compared to 24% previously). According to 6% of respondents, this conflict poses a major threat to their personal financial situation (vs. 7% in June 2025). About 2% (vs. 1% a month before) definitely fear losing their job or having to close their own business due to the war, while 8% consider such a situation possible, similarly as in June 2025.

-14.0

CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

-7.7
LEADING CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Aleja Niepodległości 208
00-925 Warszawa

Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Opracowań Statystycznych
e-mail: ssgk@stat.gov.pl