Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju

Sytuacja
społeczno-gospodarcza
kraju

Released: 26/05/2025

Basic data

Gross domestic product

1st quarter 2025

The gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2025 increased in annual terms slightly less than in the previous period but more than in the first quarter of 2024.

FLASH ESTIMATE:
(1ST QUARTER 2025)
+3.2% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
+0.7% q/q
+3.8% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Population

1st quarter 2025

The population of Poland at the end of first quarter of 2025 was lower than a year before. Fewer children were born than in first quarter of the previous year, while more deaths were recorded. As a result, the natural decrease deepened. It is estimated that in first quarter of 2025, similar as in the previous year, the international net migration was positive

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
37.4 million people
(-158 thousand y/y)
Population
58.0 thousand
(-6 thousand y/y)
LIVE BIRTHS
112.5 thousand
(+5 thousand y/y)
TOTAL DEATHS

Labour market

April 2025

The annual decrease of average paid employment in the enterprise sector was slightly smaller than in previous months of 2025. In the register rolls of the unemployed, fewer persons were recorded than a year ago, fewer persons were removed from the register as well. The registered unemployment rate at the end of April 2025 was slightly lower than in the previous month and insignificantly higher than a year before.

According to the preliminary results of the Labour Force Survey, in the first quarter of 2025, the number of employed persons as well as the employment rate were smaller than a year ago. Whereas the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were higher.

0.0% m/m
-0.8% y/y
AVERAGE PAID EMPLOYMENT IN ENTERPRISE SECTOR
(IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS)
5.2%
REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
(1ST QUARTER 2025)
3.4%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY LFS

Average monthly gross wages and salaries in enterprise sector

April 2025

Average nominal and real gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector increased in annual terms to a greater extent than in the previous months of 2025.

-0.1% m/m
+9.3% y/y

NOMINAL

-0.5% m/m
+5.1% y/y
REAL

Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions

April 2025

The year-on-year increase in average nominal gross retirement and other pensions in both systems was similar to that recorded in March 2025. With the slower pace of growth in consumer prices, the purchasing power of these benefits increased (in the case of farmers, slightly, after a minor decline in March 2025).

FROM NON-AGRICULTURAL
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM:
-0.1% m/m
+7.2% y/y
NOMINAL
-0.5% m/m
+2.0% y/y
REAL
OF FARMERS:
+0.6% m/m
+5.4% y/y
NOMINAL
+0.2% m/m
+0.3% y/y
REAL

Consumer prices

April 2025

The annual growth rate of consumer prices was the lowest since July 2024. The increase in prices, among others, of food and non-alcoholic beverages was smaller than in March 2025 as well as, slightly, in prices related to dwelling. The decline in prices, among others, of transport deepened (including fuels for personal transport equipment).

+0.4% m/m
+4.3% y/y

PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES

Prices of sold production1 of industry
and construction and assembly production

April 2025

The year-on-year decline in prices of sold production of industry was the most since the beginning of this year. The growth rate of construction and assembly production prices slowed down slightly (the increase has been at 3.7% since January 2025).

-0.2% m/m
-1.4% y/y

PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY

+0.2% m/m
+3.4% y/y
PRICES OF CONSTRUCTION
AND ASSEMBLY PRODUCTION
1 Preliminary data.

Sold production of industry2

April 2025

The increase in sold production of industry was smaller than in the previous month. After eliminating the impact of seasonal factors, the production slightly decreased. Sold production was higher than in April 2024 in manufacturing (the main section of industry) as well as in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, while lower – in mining and quarrying as well as in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. Among the main industrial groupings, sales increased in the production of capital goods and of non-durable consumer goods, while they decreased – in the production of energy, of durable consumer goods and of intermediate goods.

-3.5% m/m
+1.2% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

+1.0% m/m
-0.2% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
2 Preliminary data.

Construction and assembly production3

April 2025

The year-on-year decrease of construction and assembly production was more significant than in the previous two months. Production was lower than in April 2024 in entities specialising in construction of buildings and in civil engineering, while it was higher in enterprises dealing mainly with specialised construction activities. Sales of restoration works decreased, while of investment works increased.

+5.6% m/m
-4.2% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

-0.8% m/m
-2.9% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
3 Preliminary data.

Housing construction4

April 2025

More dwellings were completed than a year ago (a significant drop was recorded then). After large increases in April 2024, both the number of dwellings for which building permits have been granted5 and those in which construction has begun, decreased.

+2.6% m/m
+1.2% y/y

DWELLINGS COMPLETED

-14.5% m/m
-23.6% y/y

DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 5

-8.4% m/m
-5.5% y/y

DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN

4 Preliminary data.
5 Or which have been registered with a construction project.

Retail sales

April 2025

There was a year-on-year increase in retail sales, after decreases in the previous two months. Sales increased in most groups, with significant increases in entities trading in motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts and in group of furniture, radio, TV and household appliances. High growth, after a decline in April 2024, was also recorded in units trading in food, beverages and tobacco products (influenced, among others, by a different calendar of holidays than last year) and in the group of textiles, clothing, footwear. Sales also increased, among others, in the group of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels (after decreases in previous months of 2025). On the other hand, the decline in sales continued in the group of others.

+6.2% m/m
+7.6% y/y

RETAIL SALES

Transport

April 2025

Transport of goods was still lower than a year ago. Transport of passengers increased over the year to a smaller extent than in the previous months.

-1.9% m/m
-8.0% y/y

OF GOODS

-5.9% m/m
+2.7% y/y
OF PASSENGERS

Agriculture

(procurement prices)
April 2025

On the agricultural market, purchases for basic cereals and most of the main animal products were paid much more than in April last year. Potato prices increased slightly, while prices for pigs for slaughter dropped.

+0.5% m/m
+20.3% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT

+14.3% m/m
-7.9% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER

Foreign trade

(at current prices)
1st quarter 2025

The value of goods exports dropped (but to a lesser extent than in the first quarter of 2024), while the value of imports increased (after a significant decline a year earlier). Total exchange closed with a negative balance (which was positive a year before). The value of turnover with most groups of countries decreased in annual terms, only imports from developing countries increased. The terms of trade index in January–February 2025, similarly to the previous year, developed unfavourably.

-2.7% y/y

EXPORTS
(in PLN)

+3.3% y/y
IMPORTS
(in PLN)

Financial results of non-financial enterprises

1st quarter 2025

Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were higher than those obtained in the first quarter of 2024. Economic and financial relations improved. Revenues from export sales decreased. The basic indicators among exporters were more favourable than a year before, but slightly worse than those for enterprises in total.

+19.3% y/y

NET FINANCIAL RESULT

4.3%

GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

3.4%

NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

" " "

Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises

1st quarter 2025

The surveyed enterprises incurred less investment outlays than in the first quarter of 2024. Outlays on buildings and structures decreased more than those on purchases.

-3.6% y/y

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)

Business tendency

May 2025

Amidst presented activities, in manufacturing and construction, the business climate is assessed similarly unfavourably as in April 2025. However, the sentiments of entrepreneurs in retail trade improved (to slightly positive), and worsened in transportation and storage.

Among the factors hindering running a business, entrepreneurs most often point to employment costs. To a significant barriers belong also, among others, high payments to state revenue and the uncertainty of economic environment. In most activities, unclear and unstable legal regulations, among others, are mentioned less frequently amidst the barriers than in May 2024, while, among others, insufficient demand is mentioned more often.

Entrepreneurs most often predict that in 2025 they will maintain the level of investment from last year (this is indicated by about 60% of units in most of the presented activities, except for manufacturing, where the percentage was by about 44%). Among the barriers hindering investing, entrepreneurs most often indicate the high cost investments, although their importance declined in general (especially in manufacturing). The percentage of enterprises that point to high inflation as a barrier limiting investments activity has also decreased significantly (especially in construction and retail trade).

GENERAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR:
-6.4
MANUFACTURING
-3.6
CONSTRUCTION
+0.2
RETAIL TRADE
-1.4
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

Consumer tendency

May 2025

Consumer confidence indicators, reflecting current and predicted tendencies in individual consumption, are less unfavourable than in April 2025. Among others, pessimistic forecasts about the country's economic situation and the level of unemployment have improved. According to respondents, the growth in consumer prices will continue.

Consumer concerns about the threat posed by the current situation in Ukraine are slightly bigger than in April 2025. According to 29% of respondents, the conflict on Ukrainian territory poses a major threat to Poland's sovereignty and independence (vs. 28% a month earlier), and in the opinion of 26% – to the Polish economy (vs. 25%). According to 8% of respondents, the war in Ukraine is a major threat to their personal financial situation (vs. 7% in April 2025). Losing their job or closing their own business because of the war is definitely feared by 2% of respondents (vs. 1% a month before), and 8% see the possibility of such a situation (vs. 9%).

-14.5

CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

-8.9
LEADING CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Aleja Niepodległości 208
00-925 Warszawa

Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Opracowań Statystycznych
e-mail: ssgk@stat.gov.pl