Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju

Sytuacja
społeczno-gospodarcza
kraju

Released: 24/04/2025

Basic data

Gross domestic product

4th quarter 2024

In the 4th quarter of 2024, the year-on-year growth of gross domestic product was higher than in the previous period and in the 4th quarter of 2023.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
+3.2% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
+3.7% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Population

1st quarter 2025

The population of Poland at the end of the 1st quarter of 2025 was lower than a year before. Fewer children were born than in the 1st quarter of the previous year, while more deaths were recorded. As a result, the natural decrease deepened. It is estimated that in the 1st quarter of 2025, similar as in the previous year, the international net migration was positive.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
37.4 million people
(-158 thousand y/y)
Population
112.5 thousand
(+5 thousand y/y)
TOTAL DEATHS
58.0 thousand
(-6 thousand y/y)
LIVE BIRTHS

Labour market

1st quarter 2025

The annual decrease in average paid employment in the enterprise sector was bigger than in the subsequent quarters of 2024. In the register rolls of the unemployed fewer persons were registered than a year ago, and the outflow from unemployment declined as well. The registered unemployment rate at the end of March 2025 was lower than a month before and similar to the one recorded a year before.

-0.9% y/y
AVERAGE PAID EMPLOYMENT IN ENTERPRISE SECTOR
(IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS)
5.3%
REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Average monthly gross wages and salaries in enterprise sector

1st quarter 2025

Average gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector increased year-on-year to a lesser extent than in the previous quarters. The growth rate of the purchasing power of wages and salaries continued to slow down.

+8.2% y/y

NOMINAL

+3.3% y/y
REAL

Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions

1st quarter 2025

The year-on-year increase in nominal and real gross retirement and other pensions in both systems was smaller than in previous periods, which was influenced by a lower indexation compared to previous years.

FROM NON-AGRICULTURAL
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM:
+11.2% y/y
NOMINAL
+5.2% y/y
REAL
OF FARMERS:
+9.4% y/y
NOMINAL
+3.5% y/y
REAL

Consumer prices

1st quarter 2025

The year-on-year growth in prices of consumer goods and services was higher than in the 1st quarter of the previous year. In March 2025, similarly as in January and February, consumer goods and services prices were by 4.9% higher than a year before. A faster growth rate, among others, of prices related to dwelling as well as of food and non-alcoholic beverages than that for prices in total and than in previous months was recorded. The decline in transport prices deepened.

+4.9% y/y

PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES

Prices of sold production1 of industry
and construction and assembly production

1st quarter 2025

The year-on-year decline in producer prices in industry was smaller than in the subsequent quarters of the previous year. The growth rate of producer prices in construction slowed down further.

-1.1% y/y

PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY

+3.7% y/y
PRICES OF CONSTRUCTION
AND ASSEMBLY PRODUCTION
1 Preliminary data.

Sold production of industry2

1st quarter 2025

After a decrease a year before, a slight year-on-year increase of sold production of industry was recorded (mainly due to its growth in March 2025). Sales were higher than in the 1st quarter of 2024 in most sections of industry, including the major section – manufacturing. Simultaneously, their year-on-year decrease was still observed in mining and quarrying. Also in most of main industrial groupings sales increased in annual terms, with the most significant growth in the production of intermediate goods. However, a decline in sales was recorded in the production of energy.

-0.9% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

2 Preliminary data.

Construction and assembly production3

1st quarter 2025

Construction and assembly production was slightly above the level recorded a year before (when a significant decline was noted), mainly due to the increase observed in January 2025. Production was higher than in the 1st quarter of the previous year in enterprises dealing with specialised construction activities and with civil engineering, while it was lower in entities specialising in construction of buildings. Sales of investment works increased, whereas sales of restoration works declined.

+0.2% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

3 Preliminary data.

Housing construction4

1st quarter 2025

Fewer dwellings were completed than a year earlier. Following significant increases observed in the previous year, the number of dwellings for which building permits have been granted or which have been registered with a construction project, as well as the number of dwellings in which construction has begun, also decreased.

-4.6% y/y

DWELLINGS COMPLETED

-11.6% y/y

DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS HAVE BEEN GRANTED 5

-7.3% y/y

DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN

4 Preliminary data.
5 Or which have been registered with a construction project.

Retail sales

1st quarter 2025

Retail sales increased to a lesser extent than in the 1st quarter of 2024 (as a result of the declines recorded in February and March 2025). Sales increased in most groups, including among others, entities trading in motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts as well as in textiles, clothing, footwear (after a decline a year earlier) and also in solid, liquid and gaseous fuels. However, sales were lower than a year before, among others, in the group of food, beverages and tobacco products.

+1.4% y/y

RETAIL SALES

Transport

1st quarter 2025

Transport of goods declined more than in the 1st quarter of 2024. The increase in transport of passengers was slightly smaller than a year earlier.

-8.4% y/y

OF GOODS

+4.9% y/y
OF PASSENGERS

Agriculture

(procurement prices)
1st quarter 2025

Procurement prices of most basic agricultural products of plant and animal origin were higher than a year earlier (when price declines prevailed). However, prices paid for pigs for slaughter and potatoes were lower than in the 1st quarter of 2024.

+12.5% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT

-18.1% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER

Foreign trade

(at current prices)
January–February 2025

The value of goods exports declined to a lesser extent than in January–February of 2024, whereas the value of imports increased (after a drop recorded a year before). Total exchange closed with a negative balance (against a positive one in the previous year). Turnover with most country groups decreased, while only imports from developing countries increased. The terms of trade index in January 2025, contrary to the previous year, developed unfavourably.

-5.0% y/y

EXPORTS
(in PLN)

+1.1% y/y
IMPORTS
(in PLN)

Financial results of non-financial enterprises

2024

Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were significantly lower than those achieved in 2023. Economic and financial indicators deteriorated. Revenues from export sales decreased. The basic economic and financial relations of exporters worsened and were less favourable than those for enterprises in total.

-24.0% y/y

NET FINANCIAL RESULT

4.3%

GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

3.4%

NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

" " "

Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises

2024

After growth in the previous three years, in 2024 the investment outlays of the surveyed non-financial enterprises decreased in annual terms. Outlays on buildings and structures decreased more than those on purchases. The number of new investment increased (contrary to the previous two years). Their estimate value was also higher than a year before (after a decrease in 2023). Investment outlays of entities with foreign capital decreased.

-7.8% y/y

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)

Business tendency

April 2025

Entrepreneurs in most of the presented activities assess the economic situation as similarly unfavourable as in March 2025, except for transportation and storage, where assessments improved to slightly positive.

Among the barriers hindering business activity, entrepreneurs still most frequently indicate labour costs. Compared to April 2024, difficulties related to, among others, unclear, inconsistent and unstable legal regulations as well as to the uncertainty of the general economic situation are reported less frequently. Contrariwise, more indications point to barriers caused by insufficient demand.

The prevailing opinion among entrepreneurs is that in the next three months the increase in prices of services, goods, materials and raw materials used in business activity will slow down. At the same time, more entities than three months before expect price levels to stabilise. Entities less frequently indicate the possibility of prices rising at a faster pace than the current rate. According to entrepreneurs, operating costs of company are mainly driven by energy and fuel prices as well as by labour costs (though these factors are indicated less frequently than three months earlier).

The impact of the war in Ukraine on business activities is assessed by the majority of companies (84%–92%) as minor or with no negative effects.

GENERAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR:
-6.2
MANUFACTURING
-4.0
CONSTRUCTION
-2.0
RETAIL TRADE
+0.3
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

Consumer tendency

April 2025

Consumer confidence indicators, reflecting current and expected tendencies in individual consumption, are more unfavourable than in March 2025. Among others, the negative assessments of current opportunities to make major purchases and of forecasts regarding the unemployment level deteriorated. Respondents predict that the increase in consumer prices will continue.

Consumers’ concerns about the threat posed by the current situation in Ukraine are smaller than in March 2025. According to 28% of respondents, the conflict on the Ukrainian territory poses a major threat to Poland’s sovereignty and independence (compared to 36% a month before), and 25% perceive it as a significant threat to the Polish economy (vs. 29%). In the opinion of 7% of respondents, the war in Ukraine constitutes a major threat to their personal financial situation (vs. 9% in March 2025). Only 1% of respondents express strong concerns about losing their job or closing their own business due to the war (compared to 2% a month before), and 9% consider such a situation possible (vs. 11%).

-16.5

CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

-11.8
LEADING CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Aleja Niepodległości 208
00-925 Warszawa

Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Opracowań Statystycznych
tel. 22 608-31-18
e-mail: ssgk@stat.gov.pl