Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju

Sytuacja
społeczno-gospodarcza
kraju

Released: 24/02/2026

Basic data

Gross domestic product

2025

In 2025, according to preliminary estimates, gross domestic product in real terms was by 3.6% higher as compared to the previous year (in 2024, an increase of 3.0% was recorded). In the fourth quarter of 2025 the growth of gross domestic product (seasonally unadjusted) was higher than in previous periods.

FLASH ESTIMATE:
(4TH QUARTER 2025)
+4.0% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
+1.0% q/q
+3.6% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
preliminary ESTIMATE:
(2025)
+3.6% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

Population

2025

According to preliminary estimates, at the end of 2025, the population decline was greater than in the previous year. Fewer children were born during the year than in 2024, and fewer deaths were recorded. The continuing predominance of deaths over births resulted in an increase in natural decline. According to estimates the international net migration was positive, similarly to the previous nine years.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
37.3 million people
(-157 thousand y/y)
Population
238 thousand
(-14 thousand y/y)
LIVE BIRTHS
406 thousand
(-3 thousand y/y)
TOTAL DEATHS

Labour market

January 2026

The average paid employment in the enterprise sector remained lower than a year before, and a scale of decrease was similar to the one observed in previous months. In the register rolls of the unemployed, fewer persons were recorded than in January 2025, fewer persons were also removed from the register . The registered unemployment rate at the end of January 2026 was higher than in previous month and in previous year.

-0.2% m/m
-0.8% y/y

AVERAGE PAID EMPLOYMENT
IN ENTERPRISE SECTOR1
(IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS)

6.0%
REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
1 In entities with more than 9 employed persons.

Labour market – Labour Force Survey (LFS)

4th quarter 2025

According to preliminary results of the Labour Force Survey, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of employed persons as well as the employment rate were higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year. The number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate also increased compared with those recorded a year earlier.

3.2%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE by LFS

Labour market – Labour demand

3rd quarter 2025

The results of the Labour Demand Survey indicate that in the third quarter of 2025 fewer new jobs were created than a year ago. The number of jobs liquidated was also lower.

-1.0% q/q
-17.1% y/y
JOB VACANCIES
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Average monthly gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector

January 2026

The annual growth in average nominal gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector and their purchasing power was weaker than in previous months.

-6.1% m/m
+6.1% y/y

NOMINAL

-6.7% m/m
+3.8% y/y
REAL

Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions

January 2026

Average nominal gross retirement and other pensions from the non-agricultural social security system increased year-on-year to a slightly lesser extent than a month earlier. At the same time, the increase in their purchasing power strengthened slightly, which was influenced by a slowdown in inflation. A slight increase in nominal benefits of farmers continued; however, their purchasing power, as in the two previous months, was lower than a year earlier.

FROM NON-AGRICULTURAL
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM:
0.0% m/m
+7.3% y/y
NOMINAL
-0.6% m/m
+5.0% y/y
REAL
OF FARMERS:
+0.3% m/m
+1.6% y/y
NOMINAL
-0.3% m/m
-0.6% y/y
REAL

Consumer prices2

January 2026

The year-on-year increase in prices of consumer goods and services, according to preliminary data, continued to weaken further. Higher than a year before were, among others, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages and prices of goods and services related to dwelling, while the decline in prices of goods and services related to transport persisted.

+0.6% m/m
+2.2% y/y

PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES

2 According to revised COICOP 2018 classification.

Prices3 of sold production of industry
and construction and assembly production

January 2026

Prices of sold production in industry remained lower than a year before, and their decrease deepened. The growth in prices of production in construction persisted and was the highest for over a year.

-0.3% m/m
-2.6% y/y

PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY

+0.6% m/m
+4.0% y/y
PRICES OF CONSTRUCTION
AND ASSEMBLY PRODUCTION
3 Preliminary data.

Sold production of industry4

January 2026

Following a significant increase in the previous month, a year-on-year decrease in sold production of industry was recorded, related among others, to seasonal factors. Production declined in the main section of industry, i.e. manufacturing, while the growth was observed in other sections. Among the main industrial groupings, sales decreased in the production of intermediate goods as well as of durable and non-durable consumer goods. Simultaneously, they were higher than a year before in the production of capital goods and, for the first time in over a year, of energy.

-6.0% m/m
-1.5% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

-2.4% m/m
+0.4% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
4 Preliminary data.

Construction and assembly production5

January 2026

A year-on-year decline of construction and assembly production was recorded, influenced, among others, by exceptionally unfavourable weather conditions. Production was significantly lower than a year before in all divisions of construction, with the deepest decrease recorded in enterprises specialising in construction of buildings. Sales of restoration works fell more than those of investment works.

-65.2% m/m
-12.8% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

-8.9% m/m
-10.8% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
5 Preliminary data.

Housing construction6

January 2026

Fewer dwellings were completed than a year before. The number of dwellings for which permits have been granted7 has decreased. The number of dwellings in which construction has begun was also been lower than in January 2025.

-40.5% m/m
-8.0% y/y

DWELLINGS COMPLETED

-37.0% m/m
-12.3% y/y

DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 7

-6.0% m/m
-28.6% y/y

DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN

6 Preliminary data.
7 Or which have been registered with a construction project.

Retail sales

January 2026

Retail sales, according to preliminary data, increased in annual terms to a smaller extent than in the previous month (after seasonal adjustment the increase was similar to that recorded in December 2025). Most groups recorded an increase in sales, including those with the largest share in total retail sales, i.e. food, beverages and tobacco products as well as solid, liquid and gaseous fuels. While sales in units trading in motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts, decrease for the first time in two and a half years.

-17.8% m/m
+4.4% y/y

seasonally unadjusted

+0.5% m/m
+5.1% y/y

seasonally adjusted

Transport8

January 2026

The year-on-year decline in transport of goods, observed since October 2025, continued. Passengers transport also declined for the first time in five years. Fewer passengers were transported by rail and road than in January 2025.

-10.9% m/m
-9.3% y/y

OF GOODS

-9.3% m/m
-3.6% y/y
OF PASSENGERS
8 Preliminary data.

Agriculture9

(procurement prices)
January 2026

On the agricultural market, procurement prices for basic plant products were lower than in January 2025. Among the basic animal products, procurement prices of cattle and poultry for slaughter increased, while the prices of pigs for slaughter and milk decreased.

+1.5% m/m
-18.1% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT

-8.9% m/m
-17.2% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER

9 Preliminary data.

Foreign trade10

(at current prices)
2025

An increase in foreign trade turnover expressed in PLN was recorded after two years of decline. Total exchange closed with a negative balance, whereas in the previous two years it was positive. The turnover with developed and developing countries was higher than in the previous year, while that with Central and Eastern European countries was lower. The terms of trade index for the eleven months of 2025 was less unfavourable than in the corresponding period of the previous year.

+2.0% y/y

EXPORTS
(in PLN)

+3.9% y/y
IMPORTS
(in PLN)
10 Preliminary data.

Financial results of non-financial enterprises

January–September of 2025

Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were higher than those obtained in the same period of 2024. Economic and financial relations improved. Revenues from export sales increased. The basic indicators among exporters were better than a year before, but lower than for enterprises in total.

+10.1% y/y

NET FINANCIAL RESULT

4.7%

GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

3.7%

NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

" " "

Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises

January–September of 2025

The investment outlays of the surveyed non-financial enterprises were slightly higher than a year before (when a decline was recorded). Outlays on purchases increased, whereas these on buildings and structures decreased. Fewer new investments were launched than in the first three quarters of 2024, but their estimated value was higher. Entities with foreign capital incurred lower outlays than a year earlier.

+0.3% y/y

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)

Business tendency

February 2026

Entrepreneurs’ sentiments in manufacturing are slightly less pessimistic than in January 2026. In construction and retail trade entrepreneurs assess general business climate similarly unfavourably as a month before. In transportation and storage entrepreneurs’ opinions remain slightly negative.

Among the barriers in conducting current activity, entrepreneurs in most of the presented areas of the economy less often than in February 2025 indicate the uncertainty in the economic environment and high payments to the state budget. For entities in manufacturing and construction, shortage of skilled labour is also, among others, less burdensome than a year earlier. In transportation and storage and in retail trade enterprises point to an increase in the severity of too tough competition on the market.

Most entrepreneurs expect that in 2026 they maintain the level of investment from the previous year (among the presented activities, this is indicated by 48–62% of enterprises). Among the barriers limiting investment activity, entities most often in general mention high costs of investments, uncertain macroeconomic situation as well as unclear and unstable legal regulations.

GENERAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR:
-3.2
MANUFACTURING
-4.7
CONSTRUCTION
-2.1
RETAIL TRADE
-0.1
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

Consumer tendency

February 2026

The consumer confidence indicator monitoring current tendencies in individual consumption is less unfavourable than in January 2026, while the indicator describing predicted tendencies – more negative. Consumers’ pessimistic assessments regarding, among others, future and current economic situation of the country, have improved. Opinions regarding the possibility of future savings are less positive, and about current making of major purchases – more negative. According to respondents, consumer price growth will persist.

Consumer concerns resulting from the current situation in Ukraine are in general similar to those reported a month ago. According to 29% of respondents, the conflict in the territory of Ukraine poses a major threat to Poland’s sovereignty and independence (compared to 30% in January 2026). Also fewer respondents perceive the war in Ukraine as a major threat to the Polish economy – 26% (compared to 29% a month ago). However, slightly more respondents believe that this conflict poses a major threat to their personal financial situation (7% compared to 6% in January 2026). The percentage of people who fear losing their job or having to cease running their own business due to the situation in Ukraine is also slightly higher (3% compared to 2% in January 2026). Still 9% of persons see a possibility that such a situation may occur.

-9.1

CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

-7.0
LEADING CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Aleja Niepodległości 208
00-925 Warszawa

Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Analiz i Udostępniania Informacji
e-mail: ssgk@stat.gov.pl