Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju

Sytuacja
społeczno-gospodarcza
kraju

Released: 24/03/2026

Basic data

Gross domestic product

4th quarter 2025

The growth of gross domestic product (seasonally unadjusted) was higher than in the previous period and than in the fourth quarter of 2024.

preliminary ESTIMATE:
+4.0% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
+1.0% q/q
+3.6% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Population

2025

According to preliminary estimates, the population decline in 2025 was greater than in the previous year. Fewer children were born during the year than in 2024, and fewer deaths were recorded. The continuing predominance of deaths over births resulted in an increase in natural decline. According to estimates, the international net migration was positive, similarly to the previous nine years.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
37.3 million people
(-157 thousand y/y)
Population
238 thousand
(-14 thousand y/y)
LIVE BIRTHS
406 thousand
(-3 thousand y/y)
TOTAL DEATHS

Labour market

February 2026

The annual decrease in average paid employment in the enterprise sector was similar to that observed in previous months. In the register rolls of the unemployed, fewer persons were recorded than a year earlier, and fewer persons were removed from the register as well. The registered unemployment rate at the end of February 2026 was higher than in the previous month and than a year before.

0.0% m/m
-0.8% y/y

AVERAGE PAID EMPLOYMENT
IN ENTERPRISE SECTOR1
(IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS)

6.1%

REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

1 In entities with more than 9 employed persons.

Labour market – Labour Force Survey (LFS)

4th quarter 2025

According to preliminary results of the Labour Force Survey, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of employed persons as well as the employment rate were higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year. The number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate also increased compared with those recorded a year earlier.

3.2%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE by LFS

Labour market – Labour demand

4th quarter 2025

According to the results of the Labour Demand Survey, in the fourth quarter of 2025 fewer new jobs were created than a year earlier. At the same time, the number of jobs liquidated also decreased.

-9.4% q/q
-5.7% y/y
JOB VACANCIES
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Average monthly gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector

February 2026

The annual growth rate of average nominal and real gross wages in the enterprise sector was similar to that recorded in January 2026.

+1.5% m/m
+6.1% y/y

NOMINAL

+1.2% m/m
+4.0% y/y
REAL

Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions

February 2026

Nominal and real retirement and other pensions in the non-agricultural social security system grew slightly less year-on-year than in previous months. With the relatively low increase in nominal benefits of farmers, their purchasing power declined further.

FROM NON-AGRICULTURAL
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM:
0.0% m/m
+7.1% y/y
NOMINAL
-0.4% m/m
+4.6% y/y
REAL
OF FARMERS:
-0.9% m/m
+1.2% y/y
NOMINAL
-1.3% m/m
-1.2% y/y
REAL

Consumer prices2

February 2026

The annual increase in prices of consumer goods and services was similar to the one recorded in January 2026 (of which the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages). Prices of goods and services related to dwelling rose to a slightly greater extent than in the previous month. The decrease in prices of goods and services related to transport was similar to that observed in January 2026, whereas the decline in prices of clothing and footwear deepened.

+0.3% m/m
+2.1% y/y

PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES

2 According to COICOP 2018 classification.

Prices3 of sold production of industry
and construction and assembly production

February 2026

Prices of production in industry remained below the level recorded a year earlier, but the decline was smaller than in the previous month. The increase in prices of production in construction continued, and the rate was slightly slower than in January 2026.

+0.1% m/m
-2.3% y/y

PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY

0.0% m/m
+3.8% y/y
PRICES OF CONSTRUCTION
AND ASSEMBLY PRODUCTION
3 Preliminary data.

Sold production of industry4

February 2026

Sold production of industry increased in annual terms, following a slight decline in the previous month. Sales increased in all sections of industry, significantly in mining and quarrying as well as in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, while slightly – in manufacturing. Among the main industrial groupings, sales increased in the production of energy, of capital goods and of non-durable consumer goods, while they decreased in the production of durable consumer goods and of intermediate goods.

+2.7% m/m
+1.5% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

+0.6% m/m
+1.7% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
4 Preliminary data.

Construction and assembly production5

February 2026

As in the previous month, a deep year-on-year decrease in construction and assembly production was recorded, influenced, among others, by exceptionally unfavourable weather conditions. Production was lower than in February 2025 in all divisions of construction, with the sharpest decline in enterprises specialising in construction of buildings. Sales of restoration works fell to a much greater extent than sales of investment works.

+6.4% m/m
-13.7% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

-3.8% m/m
-12.4% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
5 Preliminary data.

Housing construction6

February 2026

Slightly more dwellings were completed compared to the previous year, which was caused by an increase in number of dwellings completed in private construction, followed by a simultaneous decrease in construction designated for sale or rent. There were more dwellings for which permits have been granted, while the number of dwellings in which construction has begun decreased.

-0.3% m/m
+0.9% y/y

DWELLINGS COMPLETED

+28.7% m/m
+12.4% y/y

DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 7

+14.8% m/m
-14.8% y/y

DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN

6 Preliminary data.
7 Or which have been registered with a construction project.

Retail sales

February 2026

Retail sales increased in annual terms to a greater extent than in the previous month (after seasonal adjustment the increase was slightly lower than that recorded in January 2026). In most of groups, an increase in sales was recorded, including significant increases in solid, liquid and gaseous fuels as well as furniture, radio, TV and household appliances. Sales in the largest group, i.e. food, beverages and tobacco products, were slightly higher than a year earlier.

-5.6% m/m
+5.0% y/y

seasonally unadjusted

-1.1% m/m
+4.9% y/y

seasonally adjusted

Transport8

February 2026

Transport of goods continued to be below the level recorded a year earlier, but the scale of the decline was smaller. For the second consecutive month, transport of passengers was lower than a year before.

+4.2% m/m
-4.9% y/y

OF GOODS

-5.5% m/m
-1.1% y/y
OF PASSENGERS
8 Preliminary data.

Agriculture9

(procurement prices)
February 2026

On the agricultural market, procurement prices of basic plant products were well below the level recorded a year ago. Prices for most basic animal products also decreased, with only prices of cattle for slaughter increasing.

-0.4% m/m
-18.8% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT

+7.1% m/m
-13.5% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER

9 Preliminary data.

Foreign trade10

(at current prices)
January 2026

The foreign trade turnover was lower than in January 2025. The exchange closed with a positive balance, whereas a year earlier it was negative. The turnover decreased with most groups of countries, except for exports to Central and Eastern European countries, which rose slightly after a sharp decline a year ago.

-5.9% y/y

EXPORTS
(in PLN)

-9.3% y/y
IMPORTS
(in PLN)
10 Preliminary data.

Financial results of non-financial enterprises

2025

Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were higher than those obtained in 2024, and economic and financial relations also improved. Revenues from export sales increased. The basic indicators among exporters were better than a year before, but weaker than for enterprises in total.

+13.5% y/y

NET FINANCIAL RESULT

4.6%

GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

3.7%

NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

" " "

Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises

2025

Investment outlays of the surveyed non-financial enterprises were higher than in 2024 (when a decline was recorded). Expenditures on purchases increased, while expenditures on buildings and structures decreased slightly. Fewer new investments were started than in the previous year, but their estimated value was higher. Expenditures incurred by entities with foreign capital were higher than in 2024.

+3.2% y/y

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)

Business tendency

March 2026

Entrepreneurs’ sentiments in manufacturing and transportation and storage are more negative than in February 2026, while in construction they are slightly less pessimistic. Companies operating in retail trade assess the general business climate similarly unfavourably as a month earlier.

Among the barriers in conducting current activity, in the presented areas of the economy, fewer entrepreneurs than a year before indicate, among others, high payments to the state budget, labour costs, shortages of workers or skilled workers, as well as unclear, inconsistent, and unstable legal regulations. In retail trade as less burdensome are also considered high bank interest rates, while more noticeable is too tough competition on the market (which, in turn, in transportation and storage is indicated less often than a year before).

Similarly as in the previous edition of the survey on the labour market, conducted three months earlier, the majority of entrepreneurs in the presented areas of the economy, plan to maintain employment at the current level. Taking into account employees relatively difficult to replace, in transportation and storage, as well as in manufacturing, entrepreneurs are more inclined to increase employment than to limit it. In retail trade the tendency is different. In construction, similar percentage of companies plan to extent employment of such employees, as to reduce it. In the case of employees relatively easy to replace, among employers tendencies to reduce the employment still prevail. According to entrepreneurs, the main factors having a significant impact on the salary level are financial situation of the company and the need to maintain the real value of wages (inflationary increases).

GENERAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR:
-5.2
MANUFACTURING
-2.8
CONSTRUCTION
-1.3
RETAIL TRADE
-3.4
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

Consumer tendency

March 2026

Consumer confidence indicators, which reflect current and expected tendencies in individual consumption, are more unfavourable than in February 2026. More pessimistically consumers assess, among others, future and current economic situation of the country. In the opinion of the majority of respondents, the growth in consumer prices will maintain, however consumers more frequently than in previous months predict its acceleration in the coming months.

Consumers’ concerns related to threats arising from the conflict in Ukraine are generally lower than those reported in February 2026. According to 27% of respondents, the conflict on the territory of Ukraine poses a significant threat to Poland’s sovereignty and independence (in February 2026 this opinion was expressed by 29% of surveyed consumers). Slightly fewer respondents perceive the war in Ukraine as a major threat to the Polish economy – 25% (26% a month earlier) – as well as to their personal financial situation (6% vs. 7%). A smaller percentage of people express strong concerns about losing their job or stopping running their own business due to the situation in Ukraine (1% vs. 3% in February 2026), as well as those indicating the possibility of such a situation (8% vs. 9%).

-12.2

CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

-9.5
LEADING CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Aleja Niepodległości 208
00-925 Warszawa

Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Analiz i Udostępniania Informacji
e-mail: ssgk@stat.gov.pl