Population
Poland’s population at the end of the first quarter of 2026 was lower than a year ago and at the end of last year. In the period from January to March 2026, the number of live births was similar to that in the previous year, whereas the number of deaths decreased slightly. As a result of the continued excess of deaths over births, natural increase remained negative. It is estimated that in the first quarter of 2026, similarly to the corresponding period of the previous year, net international migration was positive.
Labour market
The annual decrease in average paid employment in the enterprise sector observed for the last two years continued. Compared with the first quarter of 2025, fewer persons were recorded in the register rolls of the unemployed, and fewer persons were removed from the register as well. The registered unemployment rate at the end of March 2026 remained at the level recorded in the previous month and was higher than that recorded a year earlier.
Labour market – Labour Force Survey (LFS)
According to preliminary results of the Labour Force Survey, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of employed persons as well as the employment rate were higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year. The number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate also increased compared with those recorded a year earlier.
Labour market – Labour demand
According to the results of the Labour Demand Survey, in the fourth quarter of 2025 fewer new jobs were created than a year earlier. At the same time, the number of jobs liquidated also decreased.
Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions
The growth in average nominal and real gross retirement and other pensions from the non-agricultural social security system was similar to that recorded in the two previous quarters and was higher than that of wages and salaries in the enterprise sector. The growth rate of nominal benefits of farmers slowed further, and the decline in their purchasing power was deeper than in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Consumer prices2
The annual increase in consumer prices in the first quarter 2026 was smaller than in previous periods. Prices of most groups of goods and services were higher than a year before. Among others, prices related to dwelling increased more than consumer prices in total, while prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages grew less. Prices of clothing and footwear as well as of goods and services related to transport decreased.
In March 2026 inflation accelerated, partly due to an annual increase in prices related to transport (in fuel prices due to the armed conflict in the Middle East), recorded for the first time in one and a half years. While the increase in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages was slightly smaller than that recorded in January and February 2026, and the increase in prices related to dwelling was similar.
PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES
Prices3 of sold production of industry
and construction and assembly production
In the first quarter 2026, similarly to previous periods, a decrease in producer prices in annual terms was recorded in industry, while in construction - an increase. In March 2026, the scale of the decrease in prices of sold production of industry was smaller than in previous months. In construction and assembly production, the growth rate in prices accelerated and was the highest since October 2024.
PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY
Sold production of industry4
Sold production of industry was higher than in the first quarter of the previous year, mainly as a result of its strong growth in March 2026. Production increased in all sections of industry, most notably in mining and quarrying, as well as in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. In manufacturing, the increase was slightly smaller than in industry in total. Among the main industrial groupings, sales increased in the production of energy-related goods, as well as in capital and non-durable consumer goods. Sales were lower than in the first quarter of the previous year in the production of durable consumer goods and intermediate goods.
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
Construction and assembly production5
Construction and assembly production was lower than in the first quarter of 2025. This was due to its significant decline in January and February 2026, influenced by exceptionally unfavourable weather conditions. Production was lower than in the first quarter of 2025 in all divisions of construction, with the sharpest decline observed in enterprises dealing mainly with specialised construction activities. Sales of restoration works decreased, while sales of investment works were higher than a year before.
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
Housing construction6
Slightly fewer dwellings were completed compared to the first quarter of 2025. There were more dwellings for which permits have been granted7, followed by a decrease in the number of dwellings in which construction has begun.
DWELLINGS COMPLETED
DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 7
DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN
Retail sales
Retail sales were higher than in the first quarter of 2025 (the increase in March 2026 was greater than that in January and February). Sales rose in most groups, including, among others, a significant increase in the group of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels. In the group of food, beverages and tobacco products, the increase was smaller than the overall sales growth.
seasonally unadjusted
Agriculture9
Both in procurement and at marketplaces, prices of basic agricultural products were below the level recorded in the first quarter of the previous year. However, procurement prices of cattle for slaughter were much higher than a year earlier.
PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT
PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER
Foreign trade10
Both exports and imports of goods were lower than a year before. Turnover with most countries declined, only exports to Central and Eastern European countries increased, and imports from developed countries rose slightly. The total exchange closed with a negative balance. The terms of trade index in January 2026 was more unfavourable than a year earlier.
EXPORTS
(in PLN)
Financial results of non-financial enterprises
Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were higher than those obtained in 2024, and economic and financial relations also improved. Revenues from export sales increased. The basic indicators among exporters were better than a year before, but weaker than for enterprises in total.
NET FINANCIAL RESULT
GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR
NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR
Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises
Investment outlays of the surveyed non-financial enterprises were higher than in 2024 (when a decline was recorded). Expenditures on purchases increased, while expenditures on buildings and structures decreased slightly. Fewer new investments were started than in the previous year, but their estimated value was higher. Expenditures incurred by entities with foreign capital were higher than in 2024.
INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)
Business tendency
Business sentiments in manufacturing, construction and retail trade remain as unfavourable as in March 2026. General business climate is assessed more pessimistically by company directors of enterprises operating in transportation and storage, which is related to the situation on the fuel market.
Compared with previous months, an increase in the severity of shortages of raw materials, supplies and semi-finished goods for conducting activity in manufacturing is noticeable, also of the cost of materials for activity in construction as well as of general economic uncertainty and financial problems for activity in transportation and storage.
Entrepreneurs in the presented activities generally expect that in the coming three months the growth rate in the prices of services, goods, materials and raw materials used in business activity will accelerate. These are different opinions than those prevailing in January 2026, i.e. in the previous edition of the price survey. Only in retail trade still prevail predictions that increase in prices will slow down. Energy and fuel prices are the main factors indicated as driving the rise in costs of running business, and they are reported much more frequently than three months ago. Factors such as direct import prices as well as the prices of components and services are also of greater importance than in January 2026. By contrast, costs of employment are indicated much less frequently than three months before.
The majority of enterprises in the presented sectors of the economy (88–94%) indicate that they do not feel the negative effects of the war in Ukraine or assess them as having little significance for their activity.
Consumer tendency
Consumer confidence indicators, which monitor current and expected tendencies in individual consumption, are more negative than in March 2026. Unfavourable assessments regarding the current economic situation of the country, as well as predictions concerning the level of unemployment and the financial situation of households, have worsened. The percentage of respondents according which the increase in consumer prices will continue is higher than a month before, while lower – of those who predict that the increase to be faster than before.
Consumer concerns related to the threats arising from the conflict in Ukraine are generally lower than those reported in March 2026. The percentage of respondents assessing the current situation in Ukraine as a great threat to Poland’s sovereignty and independence has decreased (from 27% to 24%) as well as of those who see it as great threat to the Polish economy (from 25% to 23%). Similarly as in March 2026, according to 6% of surveyed, the conflict in Ukraine poses a great threat to their personal financial situation. Strong fears of losing their job or having to cease running their own business due to the situation in Ukraine are expressed by 1% of respondents (similarly as a month before), while the possibility of such a situation is perceived by 7% of respondents (compared to 8% in March 2026).
CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR
Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Analiz i Udostępniania Informacji
e-mail:
ssgk@stat.gov.pl