Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju

Sytuacja
społeczno-gospodarcza
kraju

Released: 23/07/2026

Basic data

Gross domestic product

1st quarter 2026

The growth in gross domestic product in annual terms (seasonally unadjusted) in the first quarter of 2026 was lower than in the previous quarter, but slightly higher than in the first quarter of 2025. After adjusting for seasonal factors, the growth rate was weaker than in the previous period and a year before.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
+3.5% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
+0.6% q/q
+3.5% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Population

1st half of 2026

Poland’s population at the end of the first half of 2026 was lower than at the end of both June and December of 2025. In the period of January–June 2026, fewer births were registered than in the previous year, whereas the number of deaths increased. As a result of deaths outnumbering births , the natural increase remained negative. It is estimated that in the first half of 2026, as in the previous year, net international migration was positive.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
37.2 million people
(-159 thousand y/y)
Population
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
115.0 thousand
(-1 thousand y/y)
LIVE BIRTHS
210.5 thousand
(+2 thousand y/y)
TOTAL DEATHS

Labour market

1st half of 2026

The average paid employment in the enterprise sector decreased year-on-year to a slightly greater extent than in the previous year (the drop deepened in the second quarter). Smaller than in the period of January–June of 2025 was the inflow to the register rolls of the unemployed, the number of persons removed from the unemployment register also decreased. The registered unemployment rate at the end of June 2026 was lower than in previous months but exceeded the level recorded a year before.

-1.1% y/y
AVERAGE PAID EMPLOYMENT
IN ENTERPRISE SECTOR1 (IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS)
5.8%
REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
1 In entities with more than 9 employed persons.

Labour market – Labour Force Survey (LFS)

1st quarter 2026

According to the preliminary results of the Labour Force Survey, in the first quarter of 2026, the number of employed persons as well as the employment rate were higher than a year before. The number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate decreased.

3.3%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE by LFS

Labour market – Labour demand

1st quarter 2026

According to the results of the Labour Demand Survey, in the first quarter of 2026 fewer new jobs were created than a year earlier. Lower was also the number of jobs liquidated.

+16.7% q/q
-0.8% y/y
JOB VACANCIES
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Average monthly gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector

1st half of 2026

Average gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector and their purchasing power recorded slower year-on-year growth than in previous years. The pace of growth in the second quarter of 2026 decelerated slightly compared with the first quarter.

+5.8% y/y

NOMINAL

+3.0% y/y
REAL

Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions

1st half of 2026

The growth rate of average nominal and real gross retirement and other pensions from the non-agricultural social security system was higher than that of wages and salaries in the enterprise sector. Nominal retirement and other pension benefits of farmers slightly exceeded the previous year's level, but their purchasing power decreased.

FROM NON-AGRICULTURAL
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM:
+7.2% y/y
NOMINAL
+4.4% y/y
REAL
OF FARMERS:
+0.2% y/y
NOMINAL
-2.4% y/y
REAL

Consumer prices2

1st half of 2026

The growth in consumer prices was lower than in the previous year. Inflation was influenced, among others, by the situation in the Middle East. A significant increase was recorded in the prices of electricity, gas, other fuels, as well as in fuels for personal transport equipment (as a result of an acceleration of the growth rate of these prices in the second quarter). In June 2026, the growth rate of consumer prices slowed to inflation target. The increase in prices related to transport was smaller than in previous months, including slowdown in the growth of fuel prices for private vehicles slowed (though it exceeded 5%), which was due to, among others, the government’s LFP3 package. The increase in prices related to dwelling also slowed down slightly. A decline was recorded in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages.

+2.7% y/y

PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES

2 According to COICOP 2018 classification.
3The “Lower Fuel Prices” package (CPN – “Ceny Paliw Niżej”) was introduced to reduce fuel prices in response to changes in crude oil prices caused by the situation in the Middle East. Maximum fuel prices were introduced until the end of June 2026, also VAT and excise duty rates were reduced.

Prices4 of sold production of industry
and construction and assembly production

1st half of 2026

Producer prices in industry increased after two years of decline (since March 2026, prices have been above the level recorded a year before). The growth rate in construction was higher than in the previous year.

+0.5% y/y

PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY

+4.8% y/y
PRICES OF CONSTRUCTION
AND ASSEMBLY PRODUCTION
4 Preliminary data.

Sold production of industry5

1st half of 2026

Sold production of industry increased in annual terms to a greater extent than in the previous year (the growth rate accelerated in the second quarter). Growth was observed in all sections of industry, and it was the highest in mining and quarrying. In manufacturing, the growth rate was slightly weaker than in industry in total. Sales increased in most of the main industrial groupings, with the exception of durable consumer goods. The highest growth was recorded in the production of capital goods.

+3.9% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

5 Preliminary data.

Construction and assembly production6

1st half of 2026

Construction and assembly production was lower than in the first half of 2025. This was influenced by a sharp decline in January and February, caused by exceptionally difficult weather conditions. From March onwards, production remained above the level recorded a year before. Among the divisions of construction, in the first half of this year production in construction of buildings and in specialised construction activities was lower than a year earlier, while a slight increase in civil engineering was observed. Sales of investment works increased and sales of restoration works fell significantly.

-2.9% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

6 Preliminary data.

Housing construction7

1st half of 2026

After last year’s decline, an increase was recorded in the number of dwellings completed. The number of dwellings for which permits have been granted8 rose significantly. There was also an increase in the number of dwellings in which construction has begun.

+3.2% y/y

DWELLINGS COMPLETED

+18.9% y/y

DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 8

+3.5% y/y

DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN

7 Preliminary data.
8 Or which have been registered with a construction project.

Retail sales

1st half of 2026

The growth rate of retail sales was slightly lower than in the previous year. In the second quarter of 2026, the growth rate was weaker than in the first quarter of 2026. In most groups, sales in the first half of 2026 were higher than a year earlier, with the highest increase recorded in solid, liquid and gaseous fuels. A decline in sales was recorded, however, among others, in the group of food, beverages and tobacco products, which accounts for the largest share of total sales.

+3.5% y/y

seasonally unadjusted

Transport9

1st half of 2026

Road and railway transport carried more goods than in the first half of 2025. Passenger transport also increased, including a higher – than - average growth in railway transport.

(.)

OF GOODS10

+5.9% y/y
OF PASSENGERS
9 Preliminary data.
10 The lack of information on total transport of goods and maritime transport for the period April–June 2026 and January–June 2026 results, among others, from organisational changes in the maritime transport sector and the transfer of transport operations to entities not covered by the current statistical survey.

Agriculture11

1st half of 2026

Both in procurement and at marketplaces, prices of basic agricultural products were lower than in the first half of the previous year. Procurement prices of cattle for slaughter were above the level recorded a year earlier.

-15.2% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT

-17.3% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER

11 Preliminary data.

Foreign trade12

(at current prices)
January ̶ May 2026

Foreign trade turnover (in PLN) was higher than in January–May 2025. The exchange closed with a slightly smaller value of the negative balance than a year earlier. Turnover increased in exchange with most groups of countries; only imports from Central and Eastern European countries were significantly lower than in the corresponding period of the previous year. The terms of trade index in January–April 2026 was less unfavourable than a year earlier.

+3.5% y/y

EXPORTS
(in PLN)

+3.4% y/y
IMPORTS
(in PLN)
12 Preliminary data.

Financial results of non-financial enterprises

1st quarter 2026

Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were higher than those obtained in the first quarter of 2025, and economic and financial relations also improved. Revenues from export sales increased. The basic indicators for exporters were better than a year before and better than for enterprises in total.

+20.5% y/y

NET FINANCIAL RESULT

4.9%

GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

3.8%

NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

" " "

Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises

1st quarter 2026

Surveyed non-financial enterprises incurred higher investment outlays than in the previous year. Outlays on buildings and structures as well as on purchases increased.

+8.7% y/y

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)

Business tendency

July 2026

In manufacturing unfavourable assessments of business climate maintained. In contrast, sentiments in retail trade improved (from pessimistic to positive). In construction, as well as in transportation and storage, the business climate stabilised (sentiments remain slightly negative).

Entrepreneurs in manufacturing and retail trade more frequently than a month earlier report the burden of, among others, high payments to state revenue. In construction, the severity of weather conditions has increased, while in transportation and storage, of difficulties stemming from labour costs and a shortage of skilled labour have intensified.

Entrepreneurs from presented activities mostly expect the rate of price increases for services, materials, and raw materials used in their operations to slow down over the next three months (in the previous edition of the survey monitoring price tendencies, conducted in April 2026, the prevailing opinions were that the increases in price would accelerate).
Furthermore, entrepreneurs indicate much more frequently than in April 2026 that prices may stabilize. In the opinion of company executives, the increase in operating costs is driven mainly by energy and fuel prices, though these factors are indicated less frequently than three months earlier. The significance of, among others, the prices of components and services, although their impact has also weakened. In contrast, the impact of labour costs has increased (only entrepreneurs in transportation and storage do not report such a change).

The overwhelming majority of enterprises in the presented areas of the economy (90–95%) indicate that they do not experience negative effects of the war in Ukraine or assess them as having minor significance for conducted activity.

GENERAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR:
-5.3
MANUFACTURING
-0.3
CONSTRUCTION
+1.4
RETAIL TRADE
-0.2
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

Consumer tendency

July 2026

The consumer confidence indicator, which tracks current tendencies in personal consumption, is lower than a month before, while the one reflecting expected tendencies has improved. More pessimistic are, among others, assessments of the current economic situation of the country. Whereas the forecasts regarding the ability to save money are less negative. According to the majority of respondents the rate of consumer price inflation in the coming months will remain similar to those observed so far.

Consumer concerns regarding the current situation in Ukraine do not differ significantly from those reported a month earlier. As in June 2026, 23% of respondents believe that the conflict in Ukraine poses a serious threat to Poland’s sovereignty and independence. Still 22% of the surveyed persons view the situation in Ukraine as a significant threat to the Polish economy. While the percentage of respondents according to whom the conflict poses a major threat to their personal financial situation grew (from 6% to 8%). 2% of respondents fear losing their job or having to close down their business due to the situation in Ukraine (similarly to June 2026), while 9% indicate that such a situation could occur (compared to 7% a month earlier).

-10.2

CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

-7.3
LEADING CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Aleja Niepodległości 208
00-925 Warszawa

Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Analiz i Udostępniania Informacji
e-mail: ssgk@stat.gov.pl