Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju

Sytuacja
społeczno-gospodarcza
kraju

Released: 26/08/2025

Basic data

Gross domestic product

2nd quarter 2025

The gross domestic product (seasonally unadjusted) in the second quarter of 2025 increased in annual terms slightly more than in the first quarter of 2025 and in the second quarter of 2024 (in those periods the growth amounted to 3.2%). After seasonal adjustment the growth rate was weaker than in the previous quarter and a year before.

FLASH ESTIMATE:
+3.4% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
+0.8% q/q
+3.0% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Population

1st half of 2025

The population of Poland at the end of June 2025 was smaller both than a year earlier and compared to the end of December of the previous year. In January‒June 2025, fewer children were born and more people died than in the same period a year before. As the number of births was lower than the number of deaths, the natural increase remained negative. It is estimated that in first half of 2025, as in the same period of the previous year, the international net migration was positive.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
37.4 million people
(-162 thousand y/y)
Population
115.5 thousand
(-10 thousand y/y)
LIVE BIRTHS
209.0 thousand
(+6 thousand y/y)
TOTAL DEATHS

Labour market

July 2025

A slightly larger annual decline in average paid employment in the enterprise sector was recorded than in June 2025. In July 2025, more persons were recorded in the register rolls of the unemployed than a year ago, while fewer were removed from the register. The registered unemployment rate at the end of July 2025 was higher than in the previous month as well as a year before.

-0.1% m/m
-0.9% y/y
AVERAGE PAID EMPLOYMENT IN ENTERPRISE SECTOR
(IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS)
5.4%
REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Labour market – Labour Force Survey (LFS)

2nd quarter 2025

According to preliminary results of the Labour Force Survey, in the second quarter of 2025, both the number of employed persons and the employment rate were similar to these observed a year earlier. The number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate increased, but compared to the first quarter of 2025, they took on lower values.

2.8%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE by LFS

Labour market – Labour demand

1st quarter 2025

According to the results of the labour demand survey, in the first quarter of 2025 fewer new jobs were created than a year before, whereas more jobs were liquidated.

-9.8% y/y
JOB VACANCIES
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Average monthly gross wages and salaries in enterprise sector

July 2025

The year-on-year growth of the average nominal and real gross wage and salary in the enterprise sector was smaller than that recorded in June 2025 and in July 2024.

+0.3% m/m
+7.6% y/y

NOMINAL

0.0% m/m
+4.6% y/y
REAL

Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions

July 2025

The average nominal and real gross retirement and other pensions from non - agricultural social security system increased in annual terms more than in previous months. There was a decrease in the average nominal gross retirement and other pensions of farmers and in its purchasing power, which was related, among other things, to the expansion of the group of beneficiaries to include persons entitled to a new benefit – the so-called widows' pensions.

FROM NON-AGRICULTURAL
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM:
+0.9% m/m
+7.8% y/y
NOMINAL
+0.7% m/m
+4.3% y/y
REAL
OF FARMERS:
-6.9% m/m
-1.8% y/y
NOMINAL
-7.1% m/m
-5.0% y/y
REAL

Consumer prices

July 2025

The year-on-year growth in prices of consumer goods and services was the lowest in a year, which was influenced among other factors by a weakening increase in prices related to dwelling (a year ago, a significant acceleration was observed due to a partial unfreezing of energy, gas and other fuels prices). The growth in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages was similar as in June 2025. Prices, among others, related to transport were still lower than a year before (of which of fuels for personal transport equipment); their decline was smaller than in the previous month.

+0.3% m/m
+3.1% y/y

PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES

Prices of sold production1 of industry
and construction and assembly production

July 2025

Prices of sold production of industry remained lower than a year before, though the decline was slightly smaller than in previous months. Meanwhile, the growth rate of construction and assembly production prices slightly accelerated, after gradually weakening until June.

-0.1% m/m
-1.2% y/y

PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY

+0.5% m/m
+3.2% y/y
PRICES OF CONSTRUCTION
AND ASSEMBLY PRODUCTION
1 Preliminary data.

Sold production of industry2

July 2025

There was a year-on-year increase observed in sold production of industry, following a decrease recorded in June 2025. Production sales grew in manufacturing (the main section of industry) as well as in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities. The decline of sold production occurred in mining and quarrying as well as in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. Among the main industrial groupings, sales were significantly higher than a year before in the production of capital goods. Sales increases were also recorded in the production of non-durable consumer goods and of intermediate goods. Decreases were observed in the production of energy and of durable consumer goods.

+0.2% m/m
+2.9% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

+0.9% m/m
+1.1% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
2 Preliminary data.

Construction and assembly production3

July 2025

Construction and assembly production increased slightly year-on-year (to a lesser extent than in June 2025). Production was higher than a year before in companies specialising in specialised construction activities, but lower in entities mainly involved in civil engineering and construction of buildings. Sales of investment works increased, while sales of restoration works decreased.

-0.6% m/m
+0.6% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

-0.6% m/m
+0.5% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
3 Preliminary data.

Housing construction4

July 2025

Similarly to June 2025, fewer dwellings were completed than a year ago. After a significant increase in July 2024, the number of dwellings for which permits have been granted5 and dwellings in which construction has begun decreased.

+16.5% m/m
-5.6% y/y

DWELLINGS COMPLETED

+38.8% m/m
-2.4% y/y

DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 5

+23.8% m/m
-1.6% y/y

DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN

4 Preliminary data.
5 Or which have been registered with a construction project.

Retail sales

July 2025

Retail sales increased more year-on-year than in the previous month. Growth was recorded in most groups, including significant growth (after a decline a year ago) in the groups: furniture, radio, TV and household appliances as well as textiles, clothing, footwear. For the second month in a row, sales in the group with the largest share of total retail sales, i.e. food, beverages and tobacco products, were lower than a year ago.

+4.4% m/m
+4.8% y/y

RETAIL SALES

Transport

July 2025

Transport of goods was still lower than a year ago. However, the number of passengers transport continued to increase, year-on-year.

+4.5% m/m
-6.0% y/y

OF GOODS

-11.4% m/m
+7.0% y/y
OF PASSENGERS

Agriculture

(procurement prices)
July 2025

On the agricultural market, purchase prices for most basic plant and animal products were higher than in July 2024. However, prices for barley, potatoes and pigs for slaughter dropped.

-5.8% m/m
+2.7% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT

-5.3% m/m
-9.8% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER

Foreign trade

(at current prices)
1st half of 2025

Exports of goods decreased slightly year-on-year, while imports increased (whereas a year before, a decline was observed on both sides of the trade). The total exchange closed with a negative balance, unlike a year earlier. The value of goods exported to developed countries was similar to the previous year's level, while exports to other groups of countries decreased. On the import side, the value of goods imported from developed and developing countries increased, while imports from Central and Eastern European countries declined. The terms of trade index in January–May 2025, as in the previous year, was unfavourable.

-0.6% y/y

EXPORTS
(in PLN)

+3.1% y/y
IMPORTS
(in PLN)

Financial results of non-financial enterprises

1st half of 2025

Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were higher than those obtained in the first half of 2024. Economic and financial relations improved. Revenues from export sales increased. The basic indicators among exporters were better than a year before and comparable to those for enterprises in total.

+4.4% y/y

NET FINANCIAL RESULT

4.8%

GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

3.9%

NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

" " "

Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises

1st half of 2025

The investment outlays of the surveyed non-financial enterprises decreased in annual terms (the drop was smaller than a year earlier). Outlays on buildings and structures declined, while those on purchases increased. The number of new investments was lower than in the first half of 2024, with their estimated value also slightly decreased. Investment outlays of entities with foreign capital dropped.

-1.2% y/y

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)

Business tendency

August 2025

Sentiments among entrepreneurs in manufacturing and retail trade are less negative than in July 2025. In construction, the general business climate remains similarly unfavourable as a month before. In transportation and storage, assessments are slightly negative (compared to positive in July 2025).

The labour costs are most often mentioned by entrepreneurs among barriers to running current activity. Other important difficulties are, among others, also high payments to state revenue and uncertainty of economic environment (these barriers are currently indicated less often than in August 2024, it mainly concerns high payments to state revenue). Entrepreneurs generally more often than a year before report problems with insufficient demand and too tough competition on market.

Most entrepreneurs, similarly as three months before (i.e. in the previous round of the survey in which questions about investments were included) predict that in 2025 will maintain the level of investments from the last year (this is indicated by 48%–60% of units among presented activities). Among the barriers hindering investment opportunities, high investment costs are the most frequently indicated (more so than three month ago). Fewer entities than in May 2025 identify high inflation and uncertain macroeconomic situation as the factors hindering investments (which are mentioned more seldom particularly by entities in construction and retail trade).

GENERAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR:
-5.6
MANUFACTURING
-3.9
CONSTRUCTION
-2.1
RETAIL TRADE
-0.4
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

Consumer tendency

August 2025

Consumer confidence indicators, monitoring current and predicted tendencies in individual consumption, are less unfavourable than in July 2025. Among others, pessimistic assessments concerning the predicted and current economic situation of the country, have improved. According to respondents the increase in consumer prices will continue.

Consumer concerns about the threat posed by the war in Ukraine have generally increased compared to a month ago. According to 29% of respondents, the conflict on the Ukrainian territory poses a major threat to Poland's sovereignty and independence (vs. 28% in July 2025), while 28% believe it threatens the Polish economy (vs. 23%). According to 8% of respondents, the war is a major threat to their personal financial situation (vs. 6% in July 2025). Losing their job or closing their own business due to the war is a definite fear for 3% of respondents (vs. 2% a month before), while still 8% consider such a situation possible.

-12.1

CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

-6.3
LEADING CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Aleja Niepodległości 208
00-925 Warszawa

Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Opracowań Statystycznych
e-mail: ssgk@stat.gov.pl