Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju

Sytuacja
społeczno-gospodarcza
kraju

Released: 23/12/2025

Basic data

Gross domestic product

3rd quarter 2025

The gross domestic product (seasonally unadjusted) in the third quarter of 2025 increased annually more than in previous quarters (the dynamics was the highest since the third quarter of 2022). After adjusting for seasonal factors, the growth rate was faster than in the two previous quarter and a year before.

preliminary ESTIMATE:
+3.8% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
+0.9% q/q
+3.8% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Population

January‒September 2025

The population of Poland at the end of September 2025 was smaller than a year ago and at the end of the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2025, fewer children were born than a year before, while the number of deaths increased slightly. As a result of higher number of deaths than births, the natural increase remained negative. It is estimated that, as in the same period last year, the international net migration was positive.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
37.4 million people
(-158 thousand y/y)
Population
181.0 thousand
(-11 thousand y/y)
LIVE BIRTHS
303.0 thousand
(+1 thousand y/y)
TOTAL DEATHS

Labour market

November 2025

The annual decrease in average paid employment in the enterprise sector was similar to that of October 2025. In the register rolls of the unemployed, fewer persons were recorded than a year ago, there were fewer removals from the register as well. The registered unemployment rate at the end of November 2025 was similar to the one recorded in previous month and higher than a year before.

+0.1% m/m
-0.8% y/y
AVERAGE PAID EMPLOYMENT IN ENTERPRISE SECTOR
(IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS)
5.6%
REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Labour market – Labour Force Survey (LFS)

3rd quarter 2025

According to preliminary results of the Labour Force Survey, in the third quarter of 2025, both the number of employed persons and the employment rate were higher than a year ago. The number of unemployed persons and the unemployment also increased.

3.1%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE by LFS

Labour market – Labour demand

3rd quarter 2025

The results of the Labour Demand Survey indicate that in the third quarter of 2025 fewer new jobs were created than a year ago. The number of jobs liquidated was also lower.

-1.0% q/q
-17.1% y/y
JOB VACANCIES
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Average monthly gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector

November 2025

Both nominal and real average gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector increased in annual terms at a faster pace than a month ago.

+2.4% m/m
+7.1% y/y

NOMINAL

+2.3% m/m
+4.6% y/y
REAL

Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions

November 2025

The annual increase in nominal gross retirement and other pensions from the non-agricultural system was slightly smaller than in October 2025. However, the dynamics of the purchasing power of these benefits strengthened, which was influenced by the slowdown in inflation. Nominal retirement and other pensions of farmers grew the least since the beginning of this year, and their purchasing power decreased.

FROM NON-AGRICULTURAL
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM:
-0.3% m/m
+7.5% y/y
NOMINAL
-0.4% m/m
+4.7% y/y
REAL
OF FARMERS:
-1.6% m/m
+2.3% y/y
NOMINAL
-1.7% m/m
-0.4% y/y
REAL

Consumer prices

November 2025

The annual growth in consumer prices slowed down further – to the level of the inflation target. The prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as the prices related to dwelling grew to a lesser extent than in October 2025. The decrease in transport prices maintained and was similar to the one recorded a month ago.

+0.1% m/m
+2.5% y/y

PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES

Prices of sold production1 of industry
and construction and assembly production

November 2025

The year-on-year decrease in prices of production in industry slightly deepened. Prices of production in construction grew at faster rate than in previous months.

+0,1% m/m
-2.4% y/y

PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY

+0.3% m/m
+3.1% y/y
PRICES OF CONSTRUCTION
AND ASSEMBLY PRODUCTION
1 Preliminary data.

Sold production of industry2

November 2025

Following increases in previous months, a decline in sold production of industry was recorded in annual terms, which was partly due to seasonal factors. Production decreased, among others, in manufacturing, nevertheless it continued to remain higher than a year before in mining and quarrying, as well as in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities. Among the main industrial groupings, sales declined in the production of energy, of durable consumer goods and of intermediate goods. On the contrary, sales in the production of capital goods and of non-durable consumer goods were above the previous year's levels.

-9.3% m/m
-1.1% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

-1.6% m/m
+0.8% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
2 Preliminary data.

Construction and assembly production3

November 2025

After a significant increase a month before, construction and assembly production grew slightly on an annual basis (and decreased on a seasonally adjusted basis). Production was higher than in November 2024 in enterprises engaged mainly in specialised construction activities and in entities specialising in construction of buildings, but lower in enterprises dealing mainly with civil engineering. Sales of restoration works increased, while sales of investment works decreased.

-0.7% m/m
+0.1% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

-0.9% m/m
-1.0% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
3 Preliminary data.

Housing construction4

November 2025

In the following month, more dwellings were completed than a year ago. However, the decline in the number of dwellings for which permits have been granted5 and dwellings in which construction has begun continued.

-2.6% m/m
+18.8% y/y

DWELLINGS COMPLETED

-15.0% m/m
-8.9% y/y

DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 5

+35.9% m/m
-20.7% y/y

DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN

4 Preliminary data.
5 Or which have been registered with a construction project.

Retail sales

November 2025

Retail sales increased year-on-year to a lesser extent than a month ago. Sales were higher than a year ago in most groups. A decline was recorded, among others, in the main group, i.e. food, beverages and tobacco products, after slight increases in the previous two months.

-3.3% m/m
+3.1% y/y

RETAIL SALES

Transport

November 2025

In the second consecutive month, a year-on-year decline in transport of goods was recorded, while passenger transport continued to grow.

-5.8% m/m
-4.7% y/y

OF GOODS

-10.4% m/m
+9.2% y/y
OF PASSENGERS

Agriculture

(procurement prices)
November 2025

Procurement prices for basic plant products were below the level from a year ago. Among basic animal products, prices of cattle and poultry for slaughter were higher than in November 2024, while prices for pigs for slaughter and milk were lower.

-0.8% m/m
-18.0% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT

-9.2% m/m
-12.9% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER

Foreign trade

(at current prices)
January–October of 2025

Foreign trade turnover was higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year, when its decline was recorded. The exchange closed with a negative balance (compared to a positive one a year before). The turnover with developed countries, including EU countries, and with developing countries increased year-on-year, whereas trade with Central and Eastern European countries decreased. The terms of trade index in the first three quarters of 2025 was less unfavourable than a year ago.

+1.2% y/y

EXPORTS
(in PLN)

+3.7% y/y
IMPORTS
(in PLN)

Financial results of non-financial enterprises

January–September of 2025

Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were higher than those obtained in the same period last year. Economic and financial relations improved. Revenues from export sales increased. The basic indicators among exporters were better than a year before, but lower than for enterprises in total.

+10.1% y/y

NET FINANCIAL RESULT

4.7%

GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

3.7%

NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

" " "

Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises

January–September of 2025

The investment outlays of the surveyed non-financial enterprises were slightly higher than a year before (when a decline was recorded). Outlays on purchases increased, whereas these on buildings and structures decreased. Fewer new investments were launched than in the first three quarters of 2024, but their estimated value was higher. Entities with foreign capital incurred lower outlays than a year earlier.

+0.3% y/y

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)

Business tendency

December 2025

Entrepreneurs in manufacturing and retail trade assess the business climate more pessimistically than in November 2025, while in construction and in transportation and storage it is evaluated similarly unfavourably as a month earlier.

Among barriers in conducting current activity in presented areas of the economy less entrepreneurs than a year before mention high payments to state revenue and uncertainty in the economic environment. In transportation and storage also difficulties related to shortage of skilled labour are indicated much less frequently. While troubles arising from too tough competition on the market are reported more frequently in this section, as well as in construction.

Similarly as in the previous round of the survey concerning labour market, i.e. three months ago, most of entrepreneurs in presented areas of the economy plan to maintain the previous level of employment. At the same time, in the scope of employees who are relatively easy to replace, employers more often anticipate reduction of employment than its increase. In construction and retail trade firms declare possible bigger reduction than growth of employment also in the case of workers relatively difficult to replace. In transportation and storage and in manufacturing entrepreneurs are more inclined to increase employment of such employees. Entrepreneurs still indicate that the main factors significantly influencing the employees’ salary level are financial situation of the company and the need to maintain the real value of wages (inflationary increases).

GENERAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR:
-11.6
MANUFACTURING
-10.0
CONSTRUCTION
-3.5
RETAIL TRADE
-3.6
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

Consumer tendency

December 2025

Consumer confidence indicators remain unfavourable. The indicator monitoring current tendencies of individual consumption did not change compared to November 2025, while the indicator reflecting predicted tendencies, has improved slightly. It was influenced by, among others, less negative consumers predictions concerning the level of employment and more positive forecasts about possibility of money saving. According respondents the growth in consumer prices will maintain.

Consumer concerns induced by the conflict in Ukraine are generally bigger than those expressed a month earlier. Slightly more surveyed indicate that the current situation in the Ukrainian territory constitutes a great threat to Poland’s sovereignty and independence (31% compared to 30% in November 2025) and to the Polish economy (28% compared to 27%). According to assessments of 9% of surveyed, the war in Ukraine poses a major threat to their own financial situation (compared to 6% a month before). Similarly as in November 2025, 2% of respondents express strong concerns about losing their job or necessity of stopping running their own business due to the situation in Ukraine, simultaneously, slightly less people than a month earlier see such a situation possible (10% compared 11%).

-9.9

CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

-7.0
LEADING CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Aleja Niepodległości 208
00-925 Warszawa

Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Opracowań Statystycznych
e-mail: ssgk@stat.gov.pl