Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju

Sytuacja
społeczno-gospodarcza
kraju

Released: 23/09/2025

Basic data

Gross domestic product

2nd quarter 2025

The gross domestic product (seasonally unadjusted) in the second quarter of 2025 increased in annual terms slightly more than in the first quarter of 2025 and in the second quarter of 2024 (in those periods the growth amounted to 3.2%). After seasonal adjustment the growth rate was weaker than in the previous quarter and a year before.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
+3.4% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
+0.8% q/q
+3.0% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Population

1st half of 2025

The population of Poland at the end of June 2025 was smaller both than a year earlier and compared to the end of December of the previous year. In January‒June 2025, fewer children were born and more people died than in the same period a year before. As the number of births was lower than the number of deaths, the natural increase remained negative. It is estimated that in first half of 2025, as in the same period of the previous year, the international net migration was positive.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
37.4 million people
(-162 thousand y/y)
Population
115.5 thousand
(-10 thousand y/y)
LIVE BIRTHS
209.0 thousand
(+6 thousand y/y)
TOTAL DEATHS

Labour market

August 2025

The annual decrease in average paid employment in the enterprise sector was slightly smaller than in July 2025. In August 2025, in the register rolls of the unemployed, fewer persons were recorded than a year ago, and fewer persons were removed from the register as well. The registered unemployment rate at the end of August 2025 was higher than in the previous month as well as a year before.

-0.2% m/m
-0.8% y/y
AVERAGE PAID EMPLOYMENT IN ENTERPRISE SECTOR
(IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS)
5.5%
REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Labour market – Labour Force Survey (LFS)

2nd quarter 2025

According to preliminary results of the Labour Force Survey, in the second quarter of 2025, both the number of employed persons and the employment rate were similar to these observed a year earlier. The number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate increased, but compared to the first quarter of 2025, they took on lower values.

2.8%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE by LFS

Labour market – Labour demand

2nd quarter 2025

According to the results of the Labour Demand Survey, in the second quarter of 2025 fewer new jobs were created than a year ago, fewer jobs were liquidated as well.

-5.2% q/q
-13.6% y/y
JOB VACANCIES
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Average monthly gross wages and salaries in enterprise sector

August 2025

The annual increase in the average nominal gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector was weaker than in previous months. The growth rate of their purchasing power was also slower.

-1.5% m/m
+7.1% y/y

NOMINAL

-1.5% m/m
+4.2% y/y
REAL

Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions

August 2025

The average nominal gross retirement and other pensions in both systems grew year-on-year at a lesser extent than in previous months. The increase in their purchasing power was smaller than in July 2025.

FROM NON-AGRICULTURAL
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM:
-0.1% m/m
+6.9% y/y
NOMINAL
-0.1% m/m
+3.5% y/y
REAL
OF FARMERS:
-2.4% m/m
+3.7% y/y
NOMINAL
-2.4% m/m
+0.4% y/y
REAL

Consumer prices

August 2025

The prices of consumer goods and services increased year-on-year at the slowest rate in over a year. The rise in prices related to dwelling was smaller, while the increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages prices was similar to the one recorded in the previous month. The decline in transport prices deepened (including fuels for personal transport equipment).

0.0% m/m
+2.9% y/y

PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES

Prices of sold production1 of industry
and construction and assembly production

August 2025

The annual decrease in industry prices was similar to that recorded in July 2025. The prices of production in construction grew at the slowest rate since 2021.

-0.4% m/m
-1.2% y/y

PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY

0.0% m/m
+2.8% y/y
PRICES OF CONSTRUCTION
AND ASSEMBLY PRODUCTION
1 Preliminary data.

Sold production of industry2

August 2025

Sold production of industry increased in annual terms to a lesser extent than in the previous month (but taking into account seasonal factors, the increase was higher than in July 2025). The production sold, among others, in manufacturing (the main section of industry) was higher than a year before. In turn, declines in production were still recorded in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply as well as in mining and quarrying. In most of the main industrial groupings, sold production was higher than in August 2024, with the largest increase in the production of capital goods. Yet, the observed since the beginning of 2025 significant annual decline in sales continued in the production of energy.

-7.1% m/m
+0.7% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

-0.1% m/m
+1.5% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
2 Preliminary data.

Construction and assembly production3

August 2025

Following two consecutive months of growth, construction and assembly production recorded a year-on-year decline. Production was lower than in August 2024 in all divisions of construction, with the most significant decrease in enterprises specialising in civil engineering. Sales of restoration works fell more than sales of investment works.

-8.9% m/m
-6.9% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

-4.0% m/m
-4.1% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
3 Preliminary data.

Housing construction4

August 2025

For the first time since April 2025, the number of dwellings completed increased in annual terms. However, the decrease continued in the number of dwellings for which permits have been granted5, as well as those in which construction has started.

-16.3% m/m
+4.0% y/y

DWELLINGS COMPLETED

-26.7% m/m
-26.8% y/y

DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 5

-18.3% m/m
-19.3% y/y

DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN

4 Preliminary data.
5 Or which have been registered with a construction project.

Retail sales

August 2025

Retail sales increased year-on-year at a smaller extent than in the previous month. Growth was recorded in most groups, including significant increases (after a decline a year ago) in the groups: textiles, clothing, footwear as well as furniture, radio, TV and household appliances. However, sales in the group with the largest share in the total retail sales, i.e. food, beverages and tobacco products, remained lower than a year before, and the decline was deeper than in previous months.

-0.4% m/m
+3.1% y/y

RETAIL SALES

Transport

August 2025

As in previous months, fewer goods were transported than a year earlier. Meanwhile, the year-on-year increase in passenger transport continued.

-2.5% m/m
-6.5% y/y

OF GOODS

-1.7% m/m
+9.0% y/y
OF PASSENGERS

Agriculture

(procurement prices)
August 2025

Procurement prices of most basic cereals were lower than a year ago, except for rye, which recorded an increase. In contrast, procurement prices of most animal products were significantly above the previous year’s level, particularly live beef and poultry. However, purchase prices of pigs for slaughter dropped.

-7.5% m/m
-6.5% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT

+1.7% m/m
-4.7% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER

Foreign trade

(at current prices)
January–July of 2025

Exports of goods declined year-on-year, while imports increased (a year earlier, decrease was recorded on both sides of trade). The trade balance turned negative, compared to a surplus in the corresponding period of the previous year. Trade with developed countries grew annually, and imports from developing countries also rose. The terms of trade index in the first half of 2025 remained unfavourable, similarly to the previous year.

-0.3% y/y

EXPORTS
(in PLN)

+3.1% y/y
IMPORTS
(in PLN)

Financial results of non-financial enterprises

1st half of 2025

Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were higher than those obtained in the first half of 2024. Economic and financial relations improved. Revenues from export sales increased. The basic indicators among exporters were better than a year before and comparable to those for enterprises in total.

+4.4% y/y

NET FINANCIAL RESULT

4.8%

GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

3.9%

NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

" " "

Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises

1st half of 2025

The investment outlays of the surveyed non-financial enterprises decreased in annual terms (the drop was smaller than a year earlier). Outlays on buildings and structures declined, while those on purchases increased. The number of new investments was lower than in the first half of 2024, with their estimated value also slightly decreased. Investment outlays of entities with foreign capital dropped.

-1.2% y/y

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)

Business tendency

September 2025

Business sentiments in manufacturing, construction and retail trade remain as unfavourable as in August 2025. However, in transportation and storage, the assessments of business climate has improved to positive (compared to slightly negative a month before).

Among the barriers to running current business activity, entrepreneurs most frequently mention labour costs. Other significant obstacles include high payments to state revenue and uncertainty of economic environment (although these barriers, especially the high payments to state revenue, are reported less often than a year before). Entrepreneurs generally more frequently than in September 2024, report problems related to insufficient demand and too tough competition on market.

The majority of entrepreneurs across the presented areas of the economy plan to maintain employment at its current level. In the case of workers who are relatively easy to replace, more entities intend to reduce employment than to increase it. Approaches to workers who are relatively difficult to replace differs across areas. In retail trade and construction, entrepreneurs are more inclined to reduce employment than to expand it, while in manufacturing and transportation and storage, the opposite tendency is observed. According to entrepreneurs’ declarations, the main factors significantly affecting employees’ salary level remain the financial situation of the company and the need to maintain the real value of wages (inflationary increases).

GENERAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR:
-6.5
MANUFACTURING
-5.3
CONSTRUCTION
-2.4
RETAIL TRADE
+1.0
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

Consumer tendency

September 2025

Consumer confidence indicators, which reflect current and expected tendencies in individual consumption, are less negative than in August 2025. Assessments of, among others, the current situation of household and the economic situation of the country have become less pessimistic. Respondents expect the consumer prices to continue rising.

Consumers’ concerns about threats arising from the conflict in Ukraine6 are generally smaller or similar compared to the previous month. According to 28% of respondents, the current situation on the Ukrainian territory poses a major threat to Poland’s sovereignty and independence (compared to 29% in August), while 23% consider it a significant threat to the Polish economy (vs. 28%). According to 7% of respondents, the conflict poses a serious threat to their personal financial situation (vs. 8% in August 2025). A clear fear of job loss or the need to closing their own business due to the situation in Ukraine is expressed by 3% of respondents (similarly as in the previous month), while 10% consider such a situation possible (vs. 8% in August 2025).

-8.3

CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

-4.3
LEADING CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR
6 The survey was conducted from 1 and 10 September 2025.

Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Aleja Niepodległości 208
00-925 Warszawa

Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Opracowań Statystycznych
e-mail: ssgk@stat.gov.pl