Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju

Sytuacja
społeczno-gospodarcza
kraju

Released: 26/11/2025

Basic data

Gross domestic product

3rd quarter 2025

The gross domestic product (seasonally unadjusted) in the third quarter of 2025 increased annually more than in previous quarters (the dynamics was the highest in nearly three years). After seasonal factors adjustment the growth rate was faster than in the previous quarter and a year before.

flash ESTIMATE:
+3.7% y/y
SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED
+0.8% q/q
+3.7% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Population

January‒September 2025

The population of Poland at the end of September 2025 was smaller than a year ago and at the end of the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2025, fewer children were born than a year before, while the number of deaths increased slightly. As a result of higher number of deaths than births, the natural increase remained negative. It is estimated that, as in the same period last year, the international net migration was positive.

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE:
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)
37.4 million people
(-158 thousand y/y)
Population
181.0 thousand
(-11 thousand y/y)
LIVE BIRTHS
303.0 thousand
(+1 thousand y/y)
TOTAL DEATHS

Labour market

October 2025

The annual decrease of average paid employment in the enterprise sector was similar to the one observed in September 2025. In the register rolls of the unemployed, fewer persons were recorded than a year ago, fewer persons were removed from the register as well. The registered unemployment rate at the end of October 2025 was similar to the one recorded in previous month and higher than a year before.

-0.1% m/m
-0.8% y/y
AVERAGE PAID EMPLOYMENT IN ENTERPRISE SECTOR
(IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENTS)
5.6%
REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Labour market – Labour Force Survey (LFS)

3rd quarter 2025

According to preliminary results of the Labour Force Survey, in the third quarter of 2025, both the number of employed persons and the employment rate were higher than a year ago. The number of unemployed persons and the unemployment also increased.

3.1%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE by LFS

Labour market – Labour demand

2nd quarter 2025

According to the results of the Labour Demand Survey, in the second quarter of 2025 fewer new jobs were created than a year ago, fewer jobs were liquidated as well.

-5.2% q/q
-13.6% y/y
JOB VACANCIES
(AS OF THE END OF PERIOD)

Average monthly gross wages and salaries in enterprise sector

October 2025

Average nominal gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector grew at the slowest annual rate in almost five years. Despite the weakening of consumer price dynamics, the increase in the purchasing power of wages and salaries was also smaller than in previous months.

+1.3% m/m
+6.6% y/y

NOMINAL

+1.1% m/m
+3.8% y/y
REAL

Average monthly gross retirement and other pensions

October 2025

The increase in average gross retirement and other pensions from the non-agricultural system, both nominal and real, was similar to that recorded in previous months. However, the nominal benefits of farmers rose at a slower pace, and for the second consecutive month their purchasing power was below last year’s level.

FROM NON-AGRICULTURAL
SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM:
-0.2% m/m
+7.7% y/y
NOMINAL
-0.3% m/m
+4.5% y/y
REAL
OF FARMERS:
0.0% m/m
+2.1% y/y
NOMINAL
-0.1% m/m
-1.0% y/y
REAL

Consumer prices

October 2025

The year-on-year growth in consumer goods and services prices slowed down further. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased to a lesser extent than in September 2025, and prices of goods and services related to dwelling grew to a similar extent. The decline in prices related to transport (including fuels for personal transport equipment) was smaller than in previous months.

+0.1% m/m
+2.8% y/y

PRICES OF CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICES

Prices of sold production1 of industry
and construction and assembly production

October 2025

The annual decrease in production prices in industry deepened, while in construction the growth of production prices was higher than in the two preceding months.

-0.2% m/m
-2.2% y/y

PRICES OF SOLD PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRY

+0.8% m/m
+2.9% y/y
PRICES OF CONSTRUCTION
AND ASSEMBLY PRODUCTION
1 Preliminary data.

Sold production of industry2

October 2025

The year-on-year growth in sold production of industry continued. In all sections of industry production was higher than a year before, of which in manufacturing (the main section) the growth was similar to that recorded in industry in total. Among the main industrial groupings, sales increased the most in the production of capital goods. The growth was also recorded in the production of non-durable consumer goods and of intermediate goods. At the same time, sales remained below last year’s level in the production of energy and, slightly, in the production of durable consumer goods.

+5.4% m/m
+3.2% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

-1.0% m/m
+1.1% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
2 Preliminary data.

Construction and assembly production3

October 2025

Construction and assembly production increased more year-on-year than in September 2025. Production was higher than a year before in all divisions of construction, with the largest increase in enterprises engaged mainly in specialised construction activities. Sales of investment works grew to a greater extent than sales of restoration works.

+5.9% m/m
+4.1% y/y

SEASONALLY UNADJUSTED

+2.3% m/m
+3.0% y/y
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
3 Preliminary data.

Housing construction4

October 2025

Number of dwellings completed continued to rise year-on-year. Compared to October 2024, there were less dwellings for which permits have been granted5, number of dwellings in which construction has begun fell significantly as well.

+4.1% m/m
+13.4% y/y

DWELLINGS COMPLETED

+3.2% m/m
-1.3% y/y

DWELLINGS FOR WHICH PERMITS
HAVE BEEN GRANTED 5

+3.8% m/m
-13.1% y/y

DWELLINGS IN WHICH CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN

4 Preliminary data.
5 Or which have been registered with a construction project.

Retail sales

October 2025

Once again, retail sales increased in annual terms. The growth was recorded in most groups, including a slight increase in sales of food, beverages and tobacco products for the second month in a row.

+6.7% m/m
+5.4% y/y

RETAIL SALES

Transport

October 2025

Transport of goods remained lower than a year ago. However, transport of passengers continued to grow year-on-year.

+5.2% m/m
-3.2% y/y

OF GOODS

-2.5% m/m
+6.6% y/y
OF PASSENGERS

Agriculture

(procurement prices)
October 2025

On the agricultural market, purchase prices for basic plant products were lower than in October 2024. However, procurement prices for most basic animal products increased, except for pigs for slaughter.

-0.6% m/m
-15.3% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES OF WHEAT

-5.7% m/m
-11.0% y/y

PROCUREMENT PRICES
OF PIGS FOR SLAUGHTER

Foreign trade

(at current prices)
January–September of 2025

The turnover of goods was higher than in the same period of previous year, when its decline was recorded. The exchange closed with a negative balance, whereas a year earlier it was positive. The turnover with developed countries increased year-on-year on both sides of the exchange; imports from developing countries were also higher than the year ago. The terms of trade index in January–August 2025 was more unfavourable than in the previous year.

+0.8% y/y

EXPORTS
(in PLN)

+3.4% y/y
IMPORTS
(in PLN)

Financial results of non-financial enterprises

January–September of 2025

Financial results of the surveyed enterprises were higher than those obtained in the same period last year. Economic and financial relations improved. Revenues from export sales increased. The basic indicators among exporters were better than a year before, but lower than for enterprises in total.

+10.1% y/y

NET FINANCIAL RESULT

4.7%

GROSS TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

3.7%

NET TURNOVER
PROFITABILITY INDICATOR

" " "

Investment outlays of non-financial enterprises

January–September of 2025

The investment outlays of the surveyed non-financial enterprises were slightly higher than a year before (when a decline was recorded). Outlays on purchases increased, whereas these on buildings and structures decreased. Fewer new investments were launched than in the first three quarters of 2024, but their estimated value was higher. Entities with foreign capital incurred lower outlays than a year earlier.

+0.3% y/y

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS
(AT CONSTANT PRICES)

Business tendency

November 2025

Entrepreneurs’ sentiments in manufacturing, retail trade and in transportation and storage are similarly unfavourable as a month before, while in construction they are more pessimistic.

Among the barriers to running current business activity, entrepreneurs in most of the presented economic areas less often than in November 2024 point to uncertainty in the economic environment and high payments to state revenue, and in construction – also to costs of materials. In transportation and storage, as well as in construction, difficulties related to too tough competition on market appear much more frequently than a year earlier. Entrepreneurs in retail trade and in construction more often also point to insufficient demand.

Similarly as three months before (i.e., in the previous edition of the survey covering issues related to investments), most of entrepreneurs predict that in 2025 they will maintain the same level of investment as in the previous year (this is indicated by 44–60% of enterprises in the presented activities). In manufacturing, however, the percentage of enterprises planning to increase the level of investment is higher than three months ago. Among the barriers limiting investment activity, entities most often point to high costs of investments, uncertain macroeconomic situation as well as unclear and unstable legal regulations.

GENERAL BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR:
-7.9
MANUFACTURING
-8.9
CONSTRUCTION
-1.7
RETAIL TRADE
-2.5
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE

Consumer tendency

September 2025

Consumer confidence indicators remain unfavourable. The indicator reflecting current tendencies of individual consumption has improved compared to October 2025, while the indicator monitoring predicted tendencies, has worsened. Consumers assess their current possibility of making important purchases and expected financial situation of the household less pessimistically. Their opinions regarding, among others, future level of unemployment, are more negative. Respondents predict the consumer prices to continue rising.

Consumer concerns caused by the war in Ukraine are generally smaller or similar to those expressed a month earlier. Fewer respondents see the current situation in the Ukrainian territory as a great threat to Poland’s sovereignty and independence (30% compared to 34% in October 2025) and to the Polish economy (27% compared to 29%). According to 6% of surveyed, the conflict in Ukraine poses a major threat to their own financial situation (compared to 7% a month before). Similarly as a month earlier, 2% of respondents express strong concerns about losing their job or having to closing their own business due to the situation in Ukraine. On the other hand, more people see the possibility of such a situation possible - 11% compared to 8% a month earlier.

-9.9

CURRENT CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

-7.5
LEADING CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Aleja Niepodległości 208
00-925 Warszawa

Sytuacja społeczno-gospodarcza kraju
Departament Opracowań Statystycznych
e-mail: ssgk@stat.gov.pl